961 

FXUS63 KIWX 281616

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

1116 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snowfall (1 inch or less) this afternoon/evening,

  primarily north of the Indiana Toll Road. Farther south,

  rain/snow showers will affect areas east and south of Fort 

  Wayne late Sat.



- Glancing blow to the south with snow chances (20-30%) Sunday

  night into early Monday morning, mainly south of US-30. 



- A mild and wet pattern sets up next week. Periods of moderate

  to heavy rain is possible by mid to late work week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 126 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



A cold front will continue to work its way through the area 

during the overnight hours, leading to a steady decline in temps

to the upper 20s / low 30s by daybreak. A disturbance dropping 

out of the northern plains will bring the chance for snow this 

afternoon and evening, primarily across Michigan. There should 

be a pretty sharp gradient on the southern edge of the 

precipitation initially where low-level saturation is not aided 

by isentropic accent and Fgen forcing (likely around the MI/IN 

border). Accumulation of roughly an inch or less can be 

expected, with minimal impacts. By late evening, PoP coverage 

will expand south and east as scattered rain/snow showers move 

into the area thanks to an uptick in PWATs and synoptic forcing.





Surface high pressure dominates the northeast and Upper Ohio 

Valley to start the week. This will help to shunt a disturbance 

just to our south Sunday night into Monday morning, with a bulk 

of the weather remaining over central/southern Indiana. While 

some slick spots along and south of US-24 can't be ruled out 

for the Monday morning commute, the expectation is little to no 

snowfall accumulation will occur. 



The rest of the week looks active as several chances for 

precipitation occurs under a gradually warming temperature 

regime. Monday night into Tuesday will feature mixed precip 

types, followed by a transition over to rain as the precip type 

through the remainder of the week. With 2-3+ inches of QPF 

possible by the end of the week, it will be a welcome sight for 

the many drought stricken places in central Indiana and 

northwest Ohio. Our attention will then need to shift to the 

possibility of spring flooding as we are expected to remain in a

wet pattern through much of March.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1116 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



A low amplitude frontal wave will swing through the lower Great

Lakes later this afternoon into this evening. More organized

precip associated with an elevated fgen response will pass 

north of the terminals during this time with dry low levels

likely resulting in nothing more than a few sprinkles or

flurries expected in northern IN. Cigs will eventually lower 

into MVFR this evening into early Sunday morning otherwise with 

northerly winds near 10 knots. 



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-

     046.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Norman

AVIATION...Steinwedel