297 

FXUS63 KIWX 280640

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

140 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snowfall (1 inch or less) this afternoon/evening,

  primarily north of the Indiana Toll Road. Farther south,

  rain/snow showers will affect areas east and south of Fort 

  Wayne late Sat.



- Glancing blow to the south with snow chances (20-30%) Sunday

  night into early Monday morning, mainly south of US-30. 



- A mild and wet pattern sets up next week. Periods of moderate

  to heavy rain is possible by mid to late work week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 126 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



A cold front will continue to work its way through the area 

during the overnight hours, leading to a steady decline in temps

to the upper 20s / low 30s by daybreak. A disturbance dropping 

out of the northern plains will bring the chance for snow this 

afternoon and evening, primarily across Michigan. There should 

be a pretty sharp gradient on the southern edge of the 

precipitation initially where low-level saturation is not aided 

by isentropic accent and Fgen forcing (likely around the MI/IN 

border). Accumulation of roughly an inch or less can be 

expected, with minimal impacts. By late evening, PoP coverage 

will expand south and east as scattered rain/snow showers move 

into the area thanks to an uptick in PWATs and synoptic forcing.





Surface high pressure dominates the northeast and Upper Ohio 

Valley to start the week. This will help to shunt a disturbance 

just to our south Sunday night into Monday morning, with a bulk 

of the weather remaining over central/southern Indiana. While 

some slick spots along and south of US-24 can't be ruled out 

for the Monday morning commute, the expectation is little to no 

snowfall accumulation will occur. 



The rest of the week looks active as several chances for 

precipitation occurs under a gradually warming temperature 

regime. Monday night into Tuesday will feature mixed precip 

types, followed by a transition over to rain as the precip type 

through the remainder of the week. With 2-3+ inches of QPF 

possible by the end of the week, it will be a welcome sight for 

the many drought stricken places in central Indiana and 

northwest Ohio. Our attention will then need to shift to the 

possibility of spring flooding as we are expected to remain in a

wet pattern through much of March. 





&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1222 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



Cold front is currently passing through the area and primarily

VFR conditions are expected through the day Saturday. There is

some chance for MVFR stratocu during daytime heating but suspect

degree of dry air in place will keep any lower clouds scattered.

Some weak fgen is expected to move across the area Saturday

evening and could bring some brief rain/snow and MVFR ceilings

but here again degree of dry air and overall weak forcing lowers

confidence in impacts. Much better chance of MVFR ceilings is

expected late Saturday night as CAA ramps up.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-

     046.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Norman

AVIATION...AGD