148 FXUS63 KIWX 280522 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1222 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-45% chances for light snow Saturday evening into early Sunday, highest north and east of Fort Wayne. Snow accumulations up to 0.5". - 20-40% chances for light accumulating snow along and south of US 30 Sunday evening into Monday morning. Snow accumulations up to 1". - A mild and wet pattern sets up next week. Moderate to heavy rain is possible by mid to late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Gusty southwest winds and moderate WAA have boosted temperatures into the 50s area-wide this afternoon! Enjoy the mild air while it briefly lasts, as colder air and two opportunities for light snow are ahead this weekend into early next week. A cold front currently positioned over the Upper Midwest will sweep through the area overnight. Winds have not been quite as gusty today as originally anticipated, however, southwest wind gusts should pick up to 25-30 mph ahead of the front early overnight with a tightening surface pressure gradient. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow (although still slightly above normal) in the 40s with conditions remaining dry through the daytime hours. Strong frontogenesis will then accompany the first opportunity for snowfall late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Aided by a 50 mb shortwave, a clipper type system will dive through the Upper Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region Saturday evening. Scattered snow showers will overspread the area mainly after 00Z Sunday, with 20-45% chances for precip (greatest north and east of Fort Wayne). Depending on temperatures at the surface, areas along and south of US 30 may see a rain/snow mix as opposed to just snow. QPF will be very light with this system (likely 0.10" or less), which in turn leads to light snowfall accumulations of 0.5" or less. Regardless, snow may create slick roads and reduced visibilities at times Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Northwest low-level convergent flow on the backside of the system may elicit a brief lake response from 06-12Z Sunday near Lake Michigan. I've added in 15-20% PoPs along Berrien and La Porte counties to account for this potential. Model guidance shows a weak single band developing over southern Lake Michigan, bringing light lake effect snow anywhere from Milwaukee, WI to Holland, MI depending on the model run. Lake effect snow accumulations will be brief and light, if any. Another system developing across the mid Mississippi River and Ohio River Valley will bring a second opportunity for snow Sunday evening into the first half of the day on Monday. With CAA and colder temperatures (falling into the 20s Sunday night) due to Canadian high pressure to the north, this system could bring snow to parts of the area. Some uncertainty still remains on the strength of incoming high pressure to our north on Monday; this developing high pressure may be able to push this system completely south of the area although have kept 20-40% PoPs in for now. Our CWA will be on the northern periphery of this system, meaning that locations along and south of US 30 will have the best chances for seeing accumulating light snow. Snow amounts will once again be minor, likely 0.5" to 1" (highest in north-central Indiana near our border with NWS Indy). A mild and wet weather pattern emerges for the first week of March with several opportunities for rain mid to late week. temperatures steadily climb in the early to middle part of next week, although there may be a sharp north-south temperature gradient each day depending on how far north the aforementioned mid Mississippi River valley system gets on Monday. By the middle of the week, high pressure will be over the East Coast and mid Atlantic, setting the stage for milder air and Gulf moisture to be advected into our area. Several opportunties for rain are on the table for Tuesday through Friday, possibly even becoming moderate to heavy at times. Highest confidence in heavy rain comes late in the week, when PWATs climb to over 1" and southwesterly flow advects 50-55 degrees dewpoints. Embedded thunderstorms may also occur Thursday and Friday due to elevated instability. By mid to late in the week, temperatures rise to be above normal in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Cold front is currently passing through the area and primarily VFR conditions are expected through the day Saturday. There is some chance for MVFR stratocu during daytime heating but suspect degree of dry air in place will keep any lower clouds scattered. Some weak fgen is expected to move across the area Saturday evening and could bring some brief rain/snow and MVFR ceilings but here again degree of dry air and overall weak forcing lowers confidence in impacts. Much better chance of MVFR ceilings is expected late Saturday night as CAA ramps up. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...AGD