292 

FXUS63 KIWX 301759

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

1259 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- The first of two fast-moving clipper systems will impact the

  area tonight, bringing widespread light snow with the best

  chance of accumulations mainly north of US-30. There is a

  50-70 percent chance of at least 3 inches of new accumulation

  across Berrien County MI this evening and overnight. 



- A second clipper will impact the area Wednesday afternoon

  through early Thursday morning. A general 1-3 inch snowfall is

  expected from this system, though localized snow squalls are

  also possible which could contribute to locally higher

  accumulations. 



- Trending drier later in the week through the weekend, but

  seasonably cold temperatures persist. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1255 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025



An unsettled weather pattern will persist through mid-week with the 

primary focus being on two clipper systems, both of which offering 

two brief windows of additional minor snowfall accumulation. A few 

lingering lake effect snow showers have finally begun to diminish 

early this afternoon, but expect this lull will be fairly short 

lived as a fast moving short wave and attendant mid-level vort 

max tracks across the western Great Lakes, giving way to 

widespread light to moderate snow w/ the best chance for 

accumulations north of US-30 with the highest amounts favored 

over Berrien County MI with 50-70 percent probabilities of at 

least 3 inches per the latest HREF suite. Given the relatively 

short residence time of the strongest dynamic support, opted not

to issue any headlines at this time but certainly cannot rule 

out the need for a possible Winter Weather Advisory this evening

into the overnight hours. A second, markedly stronger 

disturbance arrives mid/late Wednesday with a coupled 120- 130 

knot H25 jet helping contribute to a few strongly forced snow 

bands along the surface boundary, along with some lake 

enhancement as well. Very steep low-level lapse rates suggest 

sufficient instability for potential snow squall activity, so 

will need to monitor for this as well. An general 1-3 inch 

snowfall can be expected with this next wave. Otherwise, 

continued cold as the parade of clippers will continue to 

provide reinforcing shots of cold air, keeping H85 temperatures 

between -6 and -12 deg C and surface temperatures below 

freezing. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1225 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025



Light lake effect snow will continue to impact KSBN into early

afternoon, and then visibilities should improve as the snow

tapers off. Then another clipper system combined with more lake

enhanced snow is reinvigorated starting later this evening. 

Periods of MVFR cigs and visibility can therefore be expected at

both terminals through the TAF period. West-southwest winds will

gusts to around 20 kts.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Skipper

AVIATION...Cobb