368 FXUS63 KIWX 300524 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1224 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect snow showers continue overnight, but will continue to decrease in intensity and diminish in coverage. Gusty winds to 25 to 30 mph will still result in some blowing and drifting snow issues however. - A pair of clippers bring a quick dose of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 834 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 Fairly shallow based lake induced instability will become increasingly shallow overnight as low level subsidence and onset of weak low level warm advection lower inversion heights. Lake effect snow showers have become more cellular in nature over the past several hours and significant vsby reductions will be short-lived for rest of night given cellular nature. Additional accums should be generally an inch or less with expectation of an overall continued diminishment. Most of this light additional accumulation should be across eastern portions of the current winter weather headline areas as some dry air entrainment should limit additional accumulations across far NW Indiana. Some consideration given to dropping headlines early, but given still some wind gusts up to around 30 mph for next 2 to 4 hours with blowing/drifting snow potential, will allow Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings to continue with exception of northern LaPorte County. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 A powerful low pressure system will continue track northeast. As it does so, wind gusts will steadily decline. Lake effect snow showers persist this evening, but are expected to diminish overnight. Very cold much of this week with a couple of clippers Tuesday night and Wednesday night. A 980mb low located northeast of Lake Huron continues to produce 45 to 50 mph wind gusts as of this writing over our forecast area. The synoptic burst of snow this morning, associated with a 65-70 knot 500-mb jet has cleared the area but a couple of stronger lake effect bands continue to spill well inland reaching far northwest Ohio. Thus, blowing snow and highly variable conditions are anticipated for the evening commute, even for areas north of Fort Wayne. Steady lake effect snow and windy conditions persist for those within the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. Visibility has improved notably since the morning hours but conditions remain poor allowing the winter headlines to continue. For the wind advisory, a partial clearing was completed for some areas below 39 KTS. Otherwise, frequent gusts of 39 kts or more continue, especially in northeast IN and northwest Ohio. Lake effect snow tapers off tonight as dry air entrainment occurs in the low-levels and after midnight, inversion heights fall. The trough axis now lifting northeast will pull the lake effect bands steadily to the northwest, limiting the fetch as well. Wind gusts tonight decreasing toward 25 mph will still be enough to cause blowing and drifting snow which may impact the Tuesday morning commute as well. The next upper-level low dives in Tuesday night, followed by a second, stronger 100kt jet at 500-mb Wednesday night. Thus, Wednesday night's clipper could be stronger than the preceding one. Drying out for the late-week period with temperatures moderating toward freezing for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 The main trough that has caused the snow and wintry weather begins to pull eastward away from the area into Tuesday meanwhile surface high pressure pokes into the area. As a result, dry air helps to shut off lake effect snow this morning ahead of a clipper system as winds adjust to be out of the south. Some combination of system and lake enhanced snow is reinvigorated for the end of the TAF period starting later this afternoon at SBN. Underneath the surface inversion, low level moisture still keeps MVFR CIGs and the times of snow may provide times of lowered VISBY. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for INZ005-104-204. OH...None. MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for MIZ078-079-177-277. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for LMZ043-046. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Roller