723 FXUS63 KIND 281745 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1245 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild today with highs in upper 40s to low 60s. Isolated rain showers are possible this evening into tonight. - Snow possible Sunday Night, possibly transitioning to rain Monday morning. Light accumulations could impact Monday morning travel. - A warming trend, with a more active pattern including potential for heavy rainfall is expected mid-late next week. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Weaker cold front that passed central Indiana last night has stalled out over the Ohio Valley courtesy of supporting, seasonably strong polar high pressure so-far building less south but more east into the Ontario/Great Lakes region. Therefore winds sustained around 5- 10 mph will steadily veer through northeast and easterly directions through this afternoon as the southeastern corner of the northern surface ridge slowly builds into Indiana. Clouds will thicken through the afternoon...as broad anafrontal isentropic lift along the southern side of the surface ridge... slides into Indiana. A dry 750-900 mb layer will initially prevent any isolated rain from reaching the ground...with patchy sprinkles and a couple stray showers likely arriving for most of the region by the early evening. High temperatures today will display a stronger north to south gradient from the ambient frontal zone and additionally ceilings first arriving north of I-70 this afternoon... with maxima late this afternoon ranging from around 50F for Lafayette/Kokomo...to mid-50s for Rockville/Indianapolis/Rushville, and 60-65F in Bloomington and the region's southern tier. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A deep low pressure system has undergone occlusion over the northern portions of Quebec over the last 12 hours, with a displaced cold front becoming quasi-stationary along the southern portions of the Great Lakes region. This will slowly move south as mean flow out of the NW continues to create weak CAA from the northern Plains. This boundary has vertical tilt to the south, creating variable weather conditions across central Indiana. Over southern portions of the area, the airmass will remain mostly unchanged with temperatures surging back into the 60s this afternoon. Central portions of the area will be slightly cooler with the baroclinic zone impinging on the area and mid level cloud cover continuing on the upper portions of the frontal boundary. That leaves the northern tier of central Indiana where the surface front will reach by midday, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will become out of the ENE along and north of the front, sustained around 7-10 MPH. South of the front, counteracting convergent tendencies with a weak pressure gradient north of a building surface high will likely keep winds light but variable throughout the day. As dusk nears later tonight, weak low level cyclogenesis along the aforementioned boundary will likely lead to modest pressure depletion and rising motion of the region, with isolated to scattered showers possible after 23Z. CAMs are hinting at slightly stronger pressure depletion this evening, of which may increase shower coverage some, but overall QPF amounts should remain less that 0.1" for all areas. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 An active pattern is expected to set up throughout the long term bringing a warming trend and numerous chances for precipitation. To start off, upper troughing will be exiting the area, turning more quasi-linear into the start of the new week. A baroclinic zone should set up near the forecast area, likely just to the south, potentially bringing the chance for accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. Models have continued to trend the snow further south and with lowered amounts while surface high pressure seems to have more of an influence across central Indiana. At this time near an inch of snow is possible across our south and a trace, if anything, in the north. Depending on how quickly snow transitions to rain Monday morning, snow may impact morning traffic. Flow will turn more southwesterly to southerly the remainder of the week as amplified troughing gradually sets up in the west. This will lead to ample WAA and moisture advection to the region. Temperatures will warm into the 60s for the latter part of the week. The signal for significant rainfall continues to be maintained in the models as multiple systems could move through. This threat has prompted a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday. Exact details on timing, evolution, and or location of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain this far out. Look for rain chances to remain elevated throughout this period despite the uncertainties. Should such a scenario play out then river flooding may become possible late next week onward. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1244 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Impacts: - Isolated/scattered showers south of I-70 23Z through 08Z - Scattered High-MVFR CIGs possible at KIND/KLAF 10Z-16Z Discussion: VFR conditions will continue around central Indiana terminals under thickening high/mid clouds this afternoon...as winds sustained under 10KT slowly veer through NE/E directions. Isolated to scattered light showers are expected mainly south of I- 70 from 23Z this evening to 06-08Z tonight. Overall downward trend in confidence for any measurable rain, so have removed PROB30 for KHUF, yet can not rule out sprinkles or a lone -SHRA at KHUF/KIND tonight. Slightly greater chance for MVFR ceilings immediately following -SHRA around the 10Z-15Z timeframe where lower stratus may drift into KLAF/KIND from the north...while decks simultaneously try to scatter out early Sunday. Winds to back to north-northeast, from KLAF to KBMG within 22Z-03Z, increasing to 6-12KT by 12Z Sunday. NNE flow to continue through the end of the TAF period, with gusts up to 15-18KT through at least 18Z Sunday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGM SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...AGM