084 

FXUS63 KIND 280828

AFDIND



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

328 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mild Saturday with highs in upper 40s to low 60s. Isolated rain 

showers are possible this evening into tonight. 



- Snow possible Sunday Night, possibly transitioning to rain Monday 

morning. Light snow accumulations could impact Monday morning 

travel. 



- A warming trend, more active pattern and heavy rainfall potential 

increasing for mid-late next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...

Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



A deep low pressure system has undergone occlusion over the 

northern portions of Quebec over the last 12 hours, with a 

displaced cold front becoming quasi-stationary along the southern 

portions of the Great Lakes region. This will slowly move south as 

mean flow out of the NW continues to create weak CAA from the 

northern Plains. This boundary has vertical tilt to the south, 

creating variable weather conditions across central Indiana.



Over southern portions of the area, the airmass will remain mostly 

unchanged with temperatures surging back into the 60s this 

afternoon. Central portions of the area will be slightly cooler with 

the baroclinic zone impinging on the area and mid level cloud cover 

continuing on the upper portions of the frontal boundary. That 

leaves the northern tier of central Indiana where the surface front 

will reach by midday, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to low 

50s. 



Winds will become out of the ENE along and north of the front, 

sustained around 7-10 MPH. South of the front, counteracting 

convergent tendencies with a weak pressure gradient north of a 

building surface high will likely keep winds light but variable 

throughout the day. 



As dusk nears later tonight, weak low level cyclogenesis along the 

aforementioned boundary will likely lead to modest pressure depletion 

and rising motion of the region, with isolated to scattered showers 

possible after 23Z. CAMs are hinting at slightly stronger pressure 

depletion this evening, of which may increase shower coverage some, 

but overall QPF amounts should remain less that 0.1" for all areas.



&&



.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



An active pattern is expected to set up throughout the long term 

bringing a warming trend and numerous chances for precipitation. 



To start off, upper troughing will be exiting the area, turning more 

quasi-linear into the start of the new week. A baroclinic zone 

should set up near the forecast area, likely just to the south, 

potentially bringing the chance for accumulating snow Sunday night 

into Monday. Models have continued to trend the snow further south 

and with lowered amounts while surface high pressure seems to have 

more of an influence across central Indiana. At this time near an 

inch of snow is possible across our south and a trace, if anything, 

in the north. Depending on how quickly snow transitions to rain 

Monday morning, snow may impact morning traffic. 



Flow will turn more southwesterly to southerly the remainder of the 

week as amplified troughing gradually sets up in the west. This will 

lead to ample WAA and moisture advection to the region. Temperatures 

will warm into the 60s for the latter part of the week. The signal 

for significant rainfall continues to be maintained in the models as 

multiple systems could move through. This threat has prompted a 

Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday. Exact 

details on timing, evolution, and or location of the heaviest 

rainfall remains uncertain this far out. Look for rain chances to 

remain elevated throughout this period despite the uncertainties. 

Should such a scenario play out then river flooding may become 

possible late next week onward.



&&



.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 1243 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



Impacts:



- Winds diminish overnight and veer from West to Northeast by

  mid-morning



- Short period of LLWS to begin 



Discussion:



A front will move through the sites later this evening into the 

overnight, shifting winds to the northwest tonight and eventually

northeast in the late morning. Stronger winds aloft will linger 

for a few hours later, creating low level wind shear.



A few to scattered clouds around 6000ft have develop with the 

front. Otherwise, gradually increasing high then mid clouds will 

occur Saturday.





&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Updike

LONG TERM...KF

AVIATION...Updike