572 FXUS63 KIND 310756 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 256 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow developing late today through this evening will bring light accumulations focused especially along and northeast of Interstate 74 - Seasonably cold and dry over the next couple days with temperatures warming late weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)... Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 Flurries have ended across the forecast area early this morning as a weak upper level wave moves away to the east. A brisk W/SW wind persists with temperatures largely in the 20s at 07Z. Another and more potent upper level wave with an associated surface low will rotate around the parent upper level low over James Bay late today and tonight. A cold front will extend west from the surface low and push south across the region this evening. This will bring another round of light snow to the northeast half of central Indiana in particular late today and this evening which will unfortunately coincide with New Years Eve activities for many. Stratus remains over much of the forecast area in the wake of the weak wave aloft early this morning and will only thicken and lower through the morning as moisture once again becomes trapped beneath an inversion within the boundary layer. By mid afternoon...light snow will arrive across north central Indiana and will gradually expand to the southeast into the evening as the cold front approaches. Model soundings show the column saturating up to between 500 and 600mb and through the dendritic growth zone for a couple hours this evening which may allow for a brief period with higher snowfall rates focused across the northeast half of the forecast area. Initially...low snowfall rates combined with temperatures in the low to mid 30s will limit any accumulation. After sunset though...temperatures will fall back below freezing with an uptick in snowfall rates. Snow ratios will be near climo norms in the 10:1 to 12:1 range to start but as progressively colder air builds south this evening...expect ratios closer to 15:1 by the time snow ends around or shortly after 06Z. Light accumulations will focus primarily along and northeast of Interstate 74 with up to an inch by the time snow ends late tonight. An axis of 1 to locally 2 inches is possible focused from near Lafayette southeast through Anderson and New Castle where snowfall rates are likely to be greater. Across the southwest half of the forecast area...little to no accumulation is anticipated. Considering the potential for increased travel on the roads this evening for New Years Eve festivities...will issue an SPS across the northeast half of central indiana to highlight the light snow and subsequent slick conditions developing. Temps...low level thermals support most if not all of the forecast area making it to or above the freezing level this afternoon. Temperatures will begin to slide back this evening then drop more substantially overnight in the wake of the cold front as a renewed surge of Arctic air advects into the region. Lows by Thursday morning will be in the teens north of I-70 with lower to mid 20s further south. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 A relatively quiet pattern will set up for much of the extended as northwest flow aloft late this week gradually transitions to broad ridging over much of the country by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will warm in response to above normal levels by early next week. The first day of 2026 will be the coldest of the extended as a renewed arctic airmass settles over the region in the wake of the frontal passage tonight. High pressure will build in for the tail end of the week. Temperatures will only make in into the mid and upper 20s over the northern half of the forecast areas Thursday with subtle warming through Saturday. The amplified upper level pattern highlighted by a ridge in the western U S and a trough over the eastern half of the country will break down as the ridging weakens but presses east towards the area. High pressure will maintain dry weather into the weekend as a surface wave passes to the south across the Tennessee Valley. This will be close enough to bring increased clouds for Friday and Saturday focused especially across the southern half of the forecast area. Surface flow will swing around to the south as the high shifts east of the Ohio Valley by the end of the weekend. The passage of a warm front early next week will enhance warm advection across the Ohio Valley with highs rising into the 40s to near 50. A lack of appreciable moisture will limit any precipitation potential with the boundary as it lifts north into the Great Lakes. Confidence in the forecast as next week progresses diminishes as the upper level flow regime becomes quasi-zonal and messy highlighted by the potential for quick moving waves aloft moving through the region. There are signs of a return to an extended period of colder and unsettled weather across the Ohio Valley by the second week of January. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1142 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings developing by daybreak Wednesday and persisting through the day - Scattered flurries ending at KIND and KLAF in the predawn hours - Snow showers with occasional IFR conditions late Wednesday afternoon and evening primarily at KLAF and KIND Discussion: Scattered flurries and a few light snow showers were moving across the northeast half of central Indiana late this evening in association with a weak upper level wave. the wave will shift off to the southeast overnight with flurries ending. Stratus predominantly at low VFR levels late this evening will slip into the MVFR category at all terminals by daybreak Wednesday. A slightly stronger upper wave in tandem with a frontal boundary will move into the region late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. This system will bring more widespread light snow focused especially across the northeast half of central Indiana. Occasional IFR conditions are expected at KIND and KLAF by late day into the evening with potential for brief impacts at both KBMG and KHUF later Wednesday evening. Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon with peak gusts to around 20kts from the W/SW. As the front passes Wednesday evening...winds will veer to northwest while remaining gusty, && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Ryan