397 FXUS63 KIND 302255 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 555 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered flurries possible over the northeast half of central Indiana this evening early overnight - Greater risk for snow and light accumulations Wednesday night along and northeast of Interstate 74 - Seasonably cold through much of the rest of the week with temperatures warming by late this weekend && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)... Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a ridge of high pressure stretching from eastern TX to MO/IL and NW Indiana. A weak trough was found over MN and IA. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed a deep low over Quebec and ridging in place over the western CONUS. This was resulting in an quick and cold NW flow aloft. A pair of upper level disturbances were shown in the flow over eastern WI and SW Ontario. Neither of these were producing any precipitation. Dew point temperatures across Indiana were quite dry, ranging from the upper single digits to around 15. GOES19 shows mid and high clouds upstream over WI, IL and Ontario associated with these upper disturbances. These clouds were quickly diving southeast toward central Indiana. Tonight... Models show the upper waves quickly pushing across north and eastern parts of Indiana while the weak surface trough passes across Indiana overnight. Forecast soundings fail to show deep saturation through the night as these features pass. In fact, the lower levels across the forecast area remain dry while passing clouds are shown aloft. This is representative of the very dry air mass that remains in place at the surface due to our recent arctic air mass that has passed across the area. HRRR suggests some very light returns across the OKK-MIE areas, but given the dry air mass, we will mention only flurries. Regarding temperatures, the core of the cold air mass is drifting farther east, thus some warmer air is arriving along with expected cloud cover. Thus lows in the lower 20s will expected. Wednesday... Mainly dry weather is expected during the last day of the year. Models show the persistent northwest flow aloft remaining in place while the previous disturbances have exited east and no new disturbances are introduced. The weak surface troughing is suggested to exit in the morning before another cold front arrives over Northern Illinois, arriving for late Wednesday. Models are hinting at some snow across Central Indiana during the afternoon ahead of this boundary, but confidence is low due to an overall lack of forcing across Central Indiana until later on Wednesday Night. Still some low chance pops will be used. A cloudy day is expected as the departing surface trough and the newly approaching second trough will provide cyclonic flow within the lower levels. Time heights and forecast soundings suggest lower level saturation indicative of stratus. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday as westerly flow persists in the wake of the departed surface trough along with minimal advection. Some thermal packing is suggested late in the day across northern Indiana near the front. Still, highs in the lower and middle 30s appear on the mark. && .LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Much of the long term will see pretty persistent NW flow aloft, helping to keep colder temps around. Some models are showing the upper flow shifting more zonal by the start of next week, which could return near to slightly above normal temperatures at least briefly. At the surface, numerous quick moving high pressure systems are expected to pass through, so looking at minimal to no PoPs much of next week. The main exception however comes New Year's Eve into the early hours of the New Year, when some snow is expected due to a passing upper wave with an associated cold front. A few more waves could pass through but at this time (potentially Saturday and early next week), there doesn't look to be enough lift or moisture with these to bring more than additional cloud coverage. For New Year's Eve celebrations, expect temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s as the ball drops. Snow could start as early as the afternoon hours on the 31st and continue into the early hours of the 1st. Snow accumulations are mainly expected along and near the I-74 corridor and N - most of this area for central Indiana will likely see a few tenths of snow, but as much as an inch to 1.5 inches could be possible in the far north. Watch out for the possibility of slick roads if you are out and about. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 555 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Impacts: - MVFR conditions developing overnight and on Wednesday. - Scattered light snow showers at KLAF overnight. - Snow showers with occasional IFR visibilities late Wednesday afternoon at KLAF and KIND. Discussion: A weak storm system will move SE across the lower Great Lakes into the Appalachians overnight aiding in lowering ceilings into MVFR by 12Z Wednesday at all the terminal sites. Very light snow showers will impact KLAF with occasional MFVR visibilities overnight but are expected to stay far enough to the north of KIND for only VCSH. Another slightly further south weak storm system will move SE into the region Wednesday afternoon into early New Years Day. Occasional IFR visibilities are expected at KIND and KLAF with snow waiting until after 00Z for KHUF/KBMG. Winds will increase tomorrow afternoon with occasional gusts over 20 kts at KIND/KLAF out of the WSW. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Crosbie