545 

FXUS63 KILX 310305

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

905 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle are possible this

  evening, primarily north of I-74. There is a slight chance for a

  glaze of ice developing that could produce very slick roadways.



- Minor snow accumulations of a dusting to half inch Wednesday

  afternoon and evening north of I-72, mainly on grassy and 

  elevated surfaces as temperatures warm above freezing into early

  evening.



- Seasonable temperatures this week are favored to trend above

  normal late this weekend and early next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 905 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



A shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow is traversing

northern IL this evening, producing scattered snow flurries and 

patchy drizzle. Central IL will be primarily south of this area,

although radar is depicting echoes down to I-74. While

observations show most of the more substantial echoes to be snow,

a loss of ice crystal growth aloft due to a shallower lift appears

to be leading to some patchy freezing drizzle from several reports

in northern IL. Have included a slight chance for freezing drizzle

in some areas north of I-74 this evening in the evening forecast

update, as well as issued a Special Weather Statement for

potentially slick roadways from around Peoria to Bloomington

northward. Otherwise, lows mainly in the mid 20s look to be on 

track tonight.



37



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 120 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Visible satellite imagery shows a deck of stratocumulus spreading

southeast across central IL ahead of a mid level shortwave. While

the bulk of the forcing with this wave passes to our northeast 

through this evening, it will clip roughly the northeast quarter 

of the CWA, providing enough lift to saturate top-down and 

generate light snow and flurries. At 19z flurries with 7 mile 

visibility were reported at Lacon, with 1 mile visibility in light

snow farther north at LaSalle. As the area of light snow slides 

southeast, HREF shows only a 10% chance of measurable snow over 

northern Champaign/Vermilion counties and lower probabilities to 

the southwest. Southwest winds will veer west- northwest later 

this evening as a surface trough passes, gusting 20-25 mph at 

times.



Attention turns to a second, more potent shortwave Wednesday 

afternoon which tracks a bit further south. This system presents 

a more robust moisture profile, however, thermal profiles from the

HREF indicate surface temperatures warming into the mid-30s 

during the peak of the event. This combined with low snow rates 

will result in high melt rates on pavement, restricting minor 

accumulations (less than a half inch) primarily to grassy and 

elevated surfaces, north of I-72. Skies clear on Thursday as high

pressure builds in, though northwesterly flow keeps highs in the 

mid 20s to low 30s.



The upper pattern late this week features a persistent northwest 

flow regime as a broad longwave trough remains anchored over the 

eastern U.S. Through time the trough weakens and low- amplitude 

ridging builds across the Plains, resulting in rising heights 

locally Sunday into early next week. Medium-high confidence exists

in a thermal moderation for the back half of the forecast period.

Looking at the CPC 6-10 day outlook, the trend toward above-

normal temperatures is favored to persist through the first week 

of January. A split-flow upper level jet across the U.S. and 

Canada indicates non-impactful weather should continue into the 

middle of next week.



25



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)

Issued at 553 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



A few shortwave disturbances embedded in northwest flow aloft will

bring potential for MVFR or even brief/isolated IFR cigs/vsbys

over the upcoming 24 hours. The first should exit the area prior

to 00Z with very light snow and MVFR cigs expected to remain

northeast of the ILX terminals. Another looks to arrive overnight,

and will likely bring lowered cigs to MVFR range and perhaps a few

flurries near the I-74 corridor after 08Z. The last looks to have

the most potential for impactful conditions, with MVFR cigs and 

vsbys forecast from KPIA-KDEC northeastward after 16Z-18Z. Winds 

SW 08-14kts with gusts to around 20 kts this evening, shifting to 

WNW by 08Z-10Z.



37



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$