054 

FXUS61 KILN 010520

AFDILN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

1220 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Decreased snow in the forecast for tonight.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Some wintry precipitation expected overnight Saturday night and 

Sunday night into Monday morning.



2) Warmer and wetter conditions expected from Tuesday through the

rest of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1) Some wintry precipitation expected overnight Saturday night and 

Sunday night into Monday morning.



A system will move through overnight. Most of the precipitation is

expected to be rain, however cannot rule out snow or a very brief

period of freezing rain near and north of Interstate 70.



Another system will bring precipitation Sunday night into Monday.

Will have to watch closely the timing on this. There has been quite a

bit of variability on how much precipitation will occur with this.

There are some concerns with the timing, if it is heavy enough, that

snow Monday morning could impact the commute near and south of the

Ohio River. Hi-res models are a lot more robust with feature. Will

increase wording in HWO for parts of the area.



KEY MESSAGE 2) Warmer and wetter conditions expected from Tuesday 

through the rest of the week.



A shift to warmer and wetter conditions will occur Tuesday through 

the week. Flooding looks to be likely with this pattern as repeated 

rounds of rain are expected to move across the region. There are some

signals for potential severe weather on some of the days as well and

therefore will have to monitor trends to narrow down this potential 

as well. Will highlights these threats in the HWO. Temperatures will 

be well above normal next week during this time.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period. Some

light precipitation will move out of the area over the next few

hours, but no impacts are expected. MVFR ceilings are then forecast

to move into the area by Sunday morning, before breaking up to VFR on

Sunday afternoon. Winds will generally be out of the northeast, with

some gusts of 15-20 knots overnight through Sunday morning, then

dissipating somewhat Sunday afternoon.



Additional precipitation will move into the area early Monday

morning, though this will be beyond the end of the 24hr TAF period.



OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Monday morning, with snow

in some locations. Occasional MVFR conditions, perhaps with rain,

will then occur at times from later Monday through Thursday.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

KY...None.

IN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...Hatzos