344 FXUS61 KILN 310009 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 709 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will bring periods of snow to the region tonight and Wednesday night. Below normal temperatures will persist through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Evening update... No major changes at this time for the first round of snowfall this evening and into the overnight. Based on latest radar trends, did add a broad area of flurries with some of the light activity now reaching the ground. Observed sounding this evening did find some dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere but if a burst of snow occurs aloft, it will penetrate through to the surface. Even though some of this snow is reaching the ground, it does not appear consistent enough at this time to result in accumulations greater than a dusting. Will continue to monitor this over the next few hours and adjust as necessary. The more consistent area of snow is now stretching from northwest Ohio into Lake Michigan and eastern Wisconsin. Timing still remains on track with much of the accumulating snow fall later this evening and through the overnight. Previous discussion (12:45 PM)... Scattered flurries lingering across the area early this afternoon will continue to taper off as the low level flow slowly backs more to the west. A weak mid level short wave will drop down across the southern Great Lakes and into the upper Ohio Valley tonight. Ahead of this, the low level flow will back a bit more with some weak isentropic lift developing as we head into tonight. This will combine with the mid/upper level forcing associated with the short wave to produce a period of snow overnight, primarily for the northern and eastern portions of our area. With the cold airmass in place, SLRs will be quite high, on the order of 15:1 to 18:1. We will also get into a couple hour window where the better upward motion will intersect with the DGZ later tonight. As a result, expect fairly efficient snowfall, with 1 to 2 inches possible across central Ohio. With the snow mainly falling in the overnight period, will hold off on any advisories attm and highlight the possible travel impacts in an SPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Another, somewhat stronger, mid level short wave will pivot down through the Great Lakes and into the Upper Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This will be accompanied by a stronger cold front that will push south across our area late New Year's Eve and into the overnight hours. Low level convergence along and ahead of the front will allow for snow to develop across our north later Wednesday afternoon and then push south across our area Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours. In some weak WAA ahead of this system, temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the low to mid 30s through the afternoon. As a result, SLRs will start off a bit lower, more in the 12:1 range, but then they will increase through the night as the colder air moves in. As we get into the CAA behind the front, winds will pick up with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range possible overnight. While the better snow squall parameters look to remain off to our north/east, some heavier snow showers will likely lead to localized areas of lower visibilities and enhanced snow accumulation. In general though, expect snow accumulation of 1 to locally 2 inches for northern and eastern portions of our area Wednesday night, tapering off to little to no accumulation across our southwest. In areas that do receive more significant snowfall amounts, some blowing/drifting snow will be possible Wednesday night as the winds pick up. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Thursday morning, a cold front will be moving south of the ILN CWA, setting the stage for a dry but cold day across the forecast area. As it looks now, Thursday will be the coldest day of the extended period, with highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s. The rest of the extended forecast period will be characterized by gradually moderating temperatures, with only very low chances of any precipitation. The active mid-level WNW flow pattern will remain generally focused to the north of the Ohio Valley. Although there will be several shortwaves moving through the Great Lakes during the period from Friday through early next week, and perhaps some very light precipitation (flurries) could occur over the northern sections of the Ohio Valley, confidence remains fairly high that measurable precipitation will stay north of the area. As a result, PoPs are being kept dry through this period. By Tuesday, model uncertainty becomes higher, but chances for precipitation may begin to increase. A temperature gradient will remain in place across the area from north-to-south through the extended, with highs in the southern CWA generally about 10 degrees warmer than the northern CWA. This gradient may oscillate a bit -- a little further north on Friday for warmer temps, a little further south on Saturday for slightly cooler conditions. Overall, though, the trend is for temperatures to warm up a bit by early next week. By Monday, temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Already beginning to see some snow spread into the region across the north. Any snow during the evening is expected to be fairly scattered and light as the system moves in. Eventually, confidence increases on more widespread snow across CMH/LCK between 03Z and 10Z, with some of this activity reaching DAY/ILN. An inch or two is forecast across the Columbus area with lesser amounts southwest of there. CVG/LUK likely receive very little snow, but a dusting can't be ruled out. As the system moves through, VFR CIGs will transition to MVFR with MVFR/IFR VIS occurring where snow is accumulating. Some IFR CIGs are possible. Snow will taper off toward daybreak with improvements in CIGs forecast into the afternoon and early evening. Another system moves in toward the end of the TAF period. MVFR CIGS with MVFR/IFR VIS is forecast but timing is of lower confidence at this time. There will also be a quick wind shift when the front passes through. This is likely to occur outside the current TAF range. Some banded snow is possible and could significantly reduce visibility for a period of time during the late evening and early overnight. Winds are out of the west or west-southwest through much of the TAF period with speeds around 10 knots. Occasional gusts up to 20 knots are possible, with better chances for greater than 20 knots arriving with the second system Wednesday evening/night. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBYs likely Wednesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL/McGinnis SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...McGinnis