626 FXUS61 KILN 301745 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1245 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will bring periods of snow to the region tonight and Wednesday night. Below normal temperatures will persist through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Scattered flurries lingering across the area early this afternoon will continue to taper off as the low level flow slowly backs more to the west. A weak mid level short wave will drop down across the southern Great Lakes and into the upper Ohio Valley tonight. Ahead of this, the low level flow will back a bit more with some weak isentropic lift developing as we head into tonight. This will combine with the mid/upper level forcing associated with the short wave to produce a period of snow overnight, primarily for the northern and eastern portions of our area. With the cold airmass in place, SLRs will be quite high, on the order of 15:1 to 18:1. We will also get into a couple hour window where the better upward motion will intersect with the DGZ later tonight. As a result, expect fairly efficient snowfall, with 1 to 2 inches possible across central Ohio. With the snow mainly falling in the overnight period, will hold off on any advisories attm and highlight the possible travel impacts in an SPS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Another, somewhat stronger, mid level short wave will pivot down through the Great Lakes and into the Upper Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This will be accompanied by a stronger cold front that will push south across our area late New Year's Eve and into the overnight hours. Low level convergence along and ahead of the front will allow for snow to develop across our north later Wednesday afternoon and then push south across our area Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours. In some weak WAA ahead of this system, temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the low to mid 30s through the afternoon. As a result, SLRs will start off a bit lower, more in the 12:1 range, but then they will increase through the night as the colder air moves in. As we get into the CAA behind the front, winds will pick up with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range possible overnight. While the better snow squall parameters look to remain off to our north/east, some heavier snow showers will likely lead to localized areas of lower visibilities and enhanced snow accumulation. In general though, expect snow accumulation of 1 to locally 2 inches for northern and eastern portions of our area Wednesday night, tapering off to little to no accumulation across our southwest. In areas that do receive more significant snowfall amounts, some blowing/drifting snow will be possible Wednesday night as the winds pick up. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Thursday morning, a cold front will be moving south of the ILN CWA, setting the stage for a dry but cold day across the forecast area. As it looks now, Thursday will be the coldest day of the extended period, with highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s. The rest of the extended forecast period will be characterized by gradually moderating temperatures, with only very low chances of any precipitation. The active mid-level WNW flow pattern will remain generally focused to the north of the Ohio Valley. Although there will be several shortwaves moving through the Great Lakes during the period from Friday through early next week, and perhaps some very light precipitation (flurries) could occur over the northern sections of the Ohio Valley, confidence remains fairly high that measurable precipitation will stay north of the area. As a result, PoPs are being kept dry through this period. By Tuesday, model uncertainty becomes higher, but chances for precipitation may begin to increase. A temperature gradient will remain in place across the area from north-to-south through the extended, with highs in the southern CWA generally about 10 degrees warmer than the northern CWA. This gradient may oscillate a bit -- a little further north on Friday for warmer temps, a little further south on Saturday for slightly cooler conditions. Overall, though, the trend is for temperatures to warm up a bit by early next week. By Monday, temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR cigs and scattered snow flurries will gradually erode away from the west through this afternoon as the low level flow backs a bit more to the west. A fast moving upper level disturbance will drop southeast across the region tonight. This will lead to an increase in mid level clouds as head into this evening. Areas of snow will then develop late this evening and continue into the overnight hours, primarily across central Ohio. This will lead to MVFR to locally IFR cigs and vsbys for KCMH/KLCK in the 03Z to 10Z time frame along with the potential for an inch or two of snow accumulation. KDAY and KILN will remain on the edge of the better snow with this system so will cover the snow at those locations with a tempo group overnight for -sn and MVFR cigs and vsbys. Snow will taper off toward daybreak with some improvement in cigs possible. Another upper level disturbance will drop down toward the area Wednesday afternoon with MVFR cigs possible again late in the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBYs likely Wednesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...JGL