322 FXUS62 KILM 292323 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 723 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous heat with near-record high temperatures expected from late this week into the weekend. 2) Very low chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat with near-record high temperatures expected from late this week into the weekend. Mid-upper high pressure centered over the Mid-South today will gradually pivot northeastward through midweek and become anomalously strong (with 700mb, 500mb, and 200mb height values at or above the 99.5th percentile for this time of year) before settling over the Carolinas late this week. Given the placement of this upper high and deep-layer flow mainly between north and east, plenty of dry air and subsidence is anticipated, leading to virtually no chance for pop-up showers and storms to offer relief from the heat this week. Nevertheless, the dry air aloft mixing down each afternoon will help to lower dew points and keep heat index values very near the temperature, except around the sea breeze where ocean water temperatures in the low-mid 80s will locally raise dew points and heat index values, even if temperatures fall slightly behind it. The specifics on when and where heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (105-109F for 2+ hours) are hard to pin down as temperatures and dew points will continue to be refined in the coming days, but unfortunately, it appears the hottest period will coincide with the Independence Day holiday weekend. Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info. KEY MESSAGE 2...Very low chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week. The dry air and subsidence mentioned above is expected to keep the prospects for any weak subtropical or tropical low off the coast very low (10%) and highly unlikely to affect the local area. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR presently at all sites. Other than ILM expect VFR will dominate the valid TAF period. At ILM MVFR and even IFR stratus is possible after midnight tonight. Enhanced northeast winds this evening will spread low level moisture along the NC coast from midnight through daybreak. High likelihood of at least MVFR stratus developing around 09Z and lasting as late as 14Z before clouds mix out and VFR returns. Northeast winds along the coast tonight will become east mid to late morning Tue. Inland winds will be light and variable overnight before northeast to east winds develop mid-morning. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR. Low clouds possible Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Fog possible Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Monday night through Saturday... Behind a cold front, north winds are forecast to veer to northeast and increase this evening, with seas following suit. The enhanced flow peaks on Tuesday with speeds between 15-20 kts and seas up to 2-5 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 4-6 ft in the 20-60nmi zones. Expect northeast to east winds and seas to subside from Tuesday night through Thursday as high pressure over the central Appalachians holds in place. As a thermal trough develops over the Piedmont late this week, expect winds to veer further into the southeast to south range for Thursday through Saturday with seas subsiding into the 1-3 ft range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW AVIATION...III MARINE...ABW