063 FXUS62 KILM 291841 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 241 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Discussions updated with no major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous heat with near-record high temperatures expected from late this week into the weekend. 2) Very low chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat with near-record high temperatures expected from late this week into the weekend. Mid-upper high pressure centered over the Mid-South today will gradually pivot northeastward through midweek and become anomalously strong (with 700mb, 500mb, and 200mb height values at or above the 99.5th percentile for this time of year) before settling over the Carolinas late this week. Given the placement of this upper high and deep-layer flow mainly between north and east, plenty of dry air and subsidence is anticipated, leading to virtually no chance for pop-up showers and storms to offer relief from the heat this week. Nevertheless, the dry air aloft mixing down each afternoon will help to lower dew points and keep heat index values very near the temperature, except around the sea breeze where ocean water temperatures in the low-mid 80s will locally raise dew points and heat index values, even if temperatures fall slightly behind it. The specifics on when and where heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (105-109F for 2+ hours) are hard to pin down as temperatures and dew points will continue to be refined in the coming days, but unfortunately, it appears the hottest period will coincide with the Independence Day holiday weekend. Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info. KEY MESSAGE 2...Very low chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week. The dry air and subsidence mentioned above is expected to keep the prospects for any weak subtropical or tropical low off the coast very low (10%) and highly unlikely to affect the local area. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cumulus have risen above MVFR levels at all terminals at this time. Isolated mainly light showers will continue to stream southward in the coastal areas. An isolated storm and transient restrictions at KILM are possible (30%) this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail at all terminals through the period with winds becoming light or calm overnight before picking up out of the northeast around dawn. There is low confidence in a band of MVFR cigs spreading southwestward overnight at the leading edge of the northeast wind surge, so this will need to be re-evaluated in future TAF issuances. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR. Low clouds possible Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Fog possible Thursday night and Friday night. && .MARINE... Monday night through Saturday... Behind a cold front, north winds are forecast to veer to northeast and increase this evening, with seas following suit. The enhanced flow peaks on Tuesday with speeds between 15-20 kts and seas up to 2-5 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 4-6 ft in the 20-60nmi zones. Expect northeast to east winds and seas to subside from Tuesday night through Thursday as high pressure over the central Appalachians holds in place. As a thermal trough develops over the Piedmont late this week, expect winds to veer further into the southeast to south range for Thursday through Saturday with seas subsiding into the 1-3 ft range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW KEY MESSAGES...ABW DISCUSSION...ABW AVIATION...ABW MARINE...ABW