652 

FXUS62 KILM 290611

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

211 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the 

previous forecast. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Dangerous heat near record levels likely late week. 



2) Very low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off 

the southeast U.S. coast mid week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat near record levels likely late 

week.



Strengthening high pressure aloft is expected later this week which 

will bring above normal temperatures near record levels, 

especially for the holiday weekend. Heat Advisories are possible

as early as Thursday but more likely starting Friday for heat 

indices surpassing 105 degrees. Extreme Heat Warnings are also 

not out of the question, mainly for the weekend, if heat indices

reach 110+ degrees. 



Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot 

conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page 

(weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info.





KEY MESSAGE 2...Very low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development

off the southeast U.S. coast mid week. 



An area of low pressure is expected to form along a front off the

southeast United States coast toward mid week, mainly well southeast

of SE NC & NE SC. The NHC is highlighting a low chance for it to

acquire tropical/subtropical characteristics as it likely meanders

for a while before drifting southwest toward the coast. No

significantdirect impacts to SE NC & NE SC are expected at 

this time. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

06Z Mon thru 06Z Tue: Expect VFR conditions to generally prevail. 

However, there is a low to moderate risk for MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys 

this AM thru about 14Z as low-level moisture moves in after a 

passing weak cold front. There is also a low to moderate risk for 

showers/storms, mainly at KILM but possibly also impacting KCRE/KMYR 

due to increased moisture convergence this aftn/eve. 



06Z Tue thru Fri...Mostly VFR. Low clouds/fog possible late tonight 

and again Tue night. Generally rain-free starting Tue with just low 

chances inland this weekend, especially Sun.



&&



.MARINE...

Monday through Friday... A cold front will move through the 

area today with high pressure from the north prevailing thru mid

week. Weak low pressure could form offshore along the stalling 

cold front well south of the area early this week, with a low 

chance of it becoming tropical/subtropical in nature. The low 

is likely to drift generally SW staying well away from the local

waters later in the week. Wind/waves are not expected to reach 

Small Craft Advisory levels through the period. 



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM

KEY MESSAGES...RJB

DISCUSSION...RJB

AVIATION...RJB

MARINE...RJB