918 FXUS62 KILM 310558 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1258 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings chilly weather today with seasonable weather for the late week period. Low pressure moving west-to- east across the region will bring rain Friday night and Saturday. Warming trend and rain-free conditions are then expected heading into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cool and dry conditions continue today. Dry air in place and low fuel moisture will lead to an increase in fire danger today. Winds will be light (around 10 mph) and minimum RH will drop into the upper 20s to around 30 percent, but dry antecedent conditions will be the threat for any outdoor burning. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued through sunset. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees under clear skies. A surface trough will move overhead tonight, maintaining light boundary layer winds. Other than introducing a few upper level clouds and limiting our overnight cooling potential, impacts from the trough will be negligible. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Seasonable and dry Thursday to kick off the new year, with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 50s. Mostly clear skies and calm winds Thursday night will produce one more night of freezing temps for most of the area. PVA ahead of this weekend's shortwave/low will aid in abundant cirrus clouds on Friday, but with decent warming seen in rising 850 temps high temps Friday will be near 60F. Surface low pressure will be approaching the Mississippi Valley Friday night. Isentropic lift ahead of the low will see light rain chances increasing late Friday night heading into Saturday. Lows will be in the low 40s due to clouds and eventual rain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Unsettled weather Saturday as a 500mb shortwave, and associated surface low, moves south of our area across the Southeast Saturday into Saturday night. Forecast has good chances of rain all day Saturday, though will likely be intermittent and mostly light with pockets of moderate rainfall. While our area could certainly use the rain, not sure how much we'll get with this system. The 0z GFS came in with higher QPF than previous runs, still with a gradient of high totals for southern areas. Most of NE SC likely has the best chance of seeing >0.5" of rain this weekend, while there is a lot more uncertainty for SE NC. Cooldown behind exiting low Sunday will be minimal as mid level ridge quickly builds over the Southeast aiding in a warming trend into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High confidence in VFR throughout the period. A dry surface trough will push through the region tonight, introducing a brief period of LLWS this evening, ending prior to sunrise Thursday. Extended Outlook...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility are likely in rain late Friday night through Saturday night as low pressure moves to our south. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Light winds and quiet conditions continue today. Late this afternoon and this evening, NW winds will shift to SW ahead of an approaching trough. A surface trough pushing offshore tonight will reinforce cold air advection and mixing over the relatively warmer waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for gusts up to 30 knots between late evening and early Thursday morning. Seas only have a short window to build via the increasing gradient, therefore, seas will remain below SCA thresholds at around 4-5 feet. Thursday through Sunday...Westerly winds and seas will be quickly improving during the day Thursday as weak high pressure briefly develops over the area. By Thursday evening, winds are expected to be 10 kts or less with seas around 2 ft. Southwest winds and seas increase a bit on Friday before an approaching low makes wind direction more variable for early Saturday. The low will move across the Southeast Saturday into Saturday night bringing widespread rain and likely low visibilities at times, with NNE winds developing over the coastal waters Saturday night through Sunday, peaking around 15- 20 kts early Sunday. Seas 2 ft during the day Saturday increase to 3- 4 ft Saturday night into Sunday, with building NNE wind wave mixing with preexisting 6 sec southerly component. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...21 MARINE...VAO/21