714 FXUS62 KILM 300705 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 205 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure will finally bring a reality winter check for the Bi-State region. This dry airmass will bring below normal cold weather through Wednesday night before seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week. The next storm system should bring good chances for some much needed rain late Fri into early Sun. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong cold front is making its way through the Carolinas and should be off the coast by 7 PM. As sometimes happens with westward- moving fronts, the high terrain of the southern Appalachians has split the feature into two parts: a southern portion zipping eastward across South Carolina, and a slower northern segment moving southeastward across NC's western Piedmont. Shallow convective showers could drop a few hundredths of an inch in spots before clearing off by coast by 4-5 PM. Forecast measurable rain chances are 30-40 percent. Shallow mixing ahead of the front has already produced wind gusts near 30 mph. Deeper mixing as cold advection begins behind the front could bring down some 35 mph gusts late this afternoon through the evening. Wind speeds should gradually diminish overnight. I'm bumped up NBM lows toward the warmer GFS/ECMWF MOS numbers for most locations with lower 30s anticipated near the coast and upper 20s inland. A dry and cold Canadian airmass will remain in place Tuesday as high pressure centered over eastern TX builds slowly eastward. Highs should only reach 46-48 under full sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... After a chilly start Wednesday, cool air mass lingers a bit longer and high temps Wednesday will be in the low 50s, warmer than Tuesday but still below normal. A passing surface trough Wednesday night will only produce a few clouds and a light breeze to start the new year. Temps Wednesday night near freezing. High pressure moves over the area Thursday into Thursday night, with seasonable high temps in the upper 50s during the day and another night of low 30s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Slight warming Friday as low level flow becomes southwesterly and 850mb temps rise a few degrees, with plenty of high clouds during the day. Approaching shortwave aloft aids in surface low moving across the Gulf states Friday night before moving either across or just south of our area during the day Saturday. This will bring a good chance of much needed rain, though total QPF is uncertain with models showing best moisture staying to the south. Dry weather returns for Sunday into Monday with ridging developing behind exiting low. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR thru the 06Z TAF Issuance Period. SKC conditions with minaly no clouds other then passing thin cirrus. Main issue will be the post frontal tightened sfc pg combined with CAA that will produce modest NW winds with occasional gusts 20 kt thru midday. The sfc pg to relax during the aftn and evening with NW winds diminishing to around 5 kt by sunset, and likely going calm during the evening as winds decouple. Extended Outlook...VFR thru Fri with flight restrictions likely late Fri night thru Sat. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Tightened sfc pg combined with CAA will keep NW winds and seas at SCA thresholds thru 5 am this morning. There-after, will let SC Waters SCA expire at 5am, but persist SCA thresholds thru 9am for the NC waters. During this aftn and especially tonight, the sfc pg relaxes and CAA becomes neutral. This will result in diminishing NW winds and susbiding short period, 5 seconds or less, seas. Wednesday through Saturday...Relatively benign marine conditions during the day Wednesday with WSW winds 10-15 kts and seas 1-2 ft. A surface trough Wednesday night will increase westerly sustained winds to 15-20 kts seas 3-4 ft before conditions improve during the day Thursday. WSW winds prevail through the end of the week with seas 2-3 ft. A low pressure system is forecasted to move in from the west across the area, or just to the south, during the day Saturday. Will see a veering of winds with the low passage along with a slight increase in seas with building SW wind wave (and a weak 1 ft long period E swell) along with good rain chances. && .CLIMATE... Through December 29 observed average temperatures for the month of December have been: Wilmington.............47.0 degrees (2.9 below normal) North Myrtle Beach.....47.8 degrees (2.1 below normal) Florence...............45.9 degrees (3.1 below normal) Lumberton..............44.7 degrees (3.1 below normal) Using our forecast highs and lows to compute daily averages through December 31 and plugging that into the complete calendar year shows that 2025 will likely be the COOLEST year since 2014 for most of our area. This is despite the six month period February-July 2025 being the first or second warmest during those same 12 years! A very cold January plus consistently below normal temps starting in August have been responsible for knocking the annual average temps so low. Annual Average Temperatures Year...2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|2014 ILM....64.3|66.0|66.3|65.8|65.7|66.3|66.3|65.1|65.8|65.2|65.3|63.7 CRE....64.1|65.7|65.0|64.1|64.3|66.4|65.8|65.0|65.5|65.3|65.5|63.0 FLO....64.6|66.3|65.2|65.2|65.2|66.2|66.3|65.7|65.5|65.6|65.9|63.5 LBT....63.4|65.4|64.4|64.6|64.3|64.6|65.3|64.5|64.5|64.5|65.2|62.1 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/VAO CLIMATE...TRA/VAO