172 FXUS62 KILM 300659 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 159 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure will finally bring a reality winter check for the Bi-State region. This dry airmass will bring below normal cold weather through Wednesday night before seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week. The next storm system should bring good chances for some much needed rain late Fri into early Sun. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A dry atmosphere slated for the ILM CWA this period with progged sounding data indicating PWs around 0.15 inches today and 0.20-0.30 inches tonight. Only clouds possible will be mainly passing thin cirrus, if any at all. Tightened sfc pg combined with CAA will keep NW winds frisky thru early this afternoon before likely decoupling this evening and thru the night. Various MOS guidance keeps max temps in the mid 40s today. With winds decoupling this evening, this will allow temps to free-fall especially with sfc dewpoints in the teens. Have applied some decent radiational cooling to tonights min temps under the continued clear sky regime. Those few prone cold locations across the FA could drop into the teens, ie. Back Island RAWS Station in Pender County, NC. Overall, tonights lows across the FA will see widespread 20s to near 30 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Quiet but cold weather slated for the short term. Surface high pressure Tuesday night will be over TX so while cold locally we shouldn't decouple and radiate. On Wednesday even though a light southwesterly flow develops, vertical mixing is progged to be capped at 3kft keeping highs about a category below climo. LIght but not calm winds Wednesday night will bring lows that are closer to normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Thursday is a transitional day where the TX high becomes centered over FL and a weak front/trough pushes through. Friday will bring a minor uptick in the southerly flow as our local streamlines find themselves between the FL high and low pressure approaching from the west across the Gulf States. Clouds will increase apace in the warm advection and resulting isentropic upglide Friday with rain overspreading the area Friday night into Saturday. With the flat surface wave and front only bisecting the area initially on Saturday before both get shunted to the south we should be in the relative sweet spot for some good drought releif. Seasonable and rain-free weather is expected for the remainder of the long term. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR thru the 06Z TAF Issuance Period. SKC conditions with mainly no clouds other then passing thin cirrus. Main issue will be the post frontal tightened sfc pg combined with CAA that will produce modest NW winds with occasional gusts 20 kt thru midday. The sfc pg to relax during the aftn and evening with NW winds diminishing to around 5 kt by sunset, and likely going calm during the evening as winds decouple. Extended Outlook...VFR thru Fri with flight restrictions likely late Fri night thru Sat. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Tightened sfc pg combined with CAA will keep NW winds and seas at SCA thresholds thru 5 am this morning. There-after, will let SC Waters SCA expire at 5am, but persist SCA thresholds thru 9am for the NC waters. During this aftn and especially tonight, the sfc pg relaxes and CAA becomes neutral. This will result in diminishing NW winds and subsiding short period, 5 seconds or less, seas. Tuesday night through Saturday...NW to W winds ease Tuesday night into Wednesday allowing seas to run at just around 2 ft. A weak front/sfc trough Thursday does build wind and seas but only back to more 'typical' cool season values. Flow turns back to the SW later Friday as low pressure approaches from the west. This system will move nearly across the region leading to some variability/uncertainty in the late period wind forecast. It will be weak though and wind/seas won't be as problematic to most mariners as much as the possible lowered visibility from widespread rain. && .CLIMATE... Through December 28 observed average temperatures for the month of December have been: Wilmington.............46.6 degrees (3.3 below normal) North Myrtle Beach.....47.4 degrees (2.5 below normal) Florence...............45.6 degrees (3.4 below normal) Lumberton..............44.3 degrees (3.4 below normal) Using our forecast highs and lows to compute daily averages through December 31 and plugging that into the complete calendar year shows that 2025 will likely be the COOLEST year since 2014 for most of our area. This is despite the six month period February-July 2025 being the first or second warmest during those same 12 years! A very cold January plus consistently below normal temps starting in August have been responsible for knocking the annual average temps so low. Annual Average Temperatures Year...2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|2014 ILM....64.3|66.0|66.3|65.8|65.7|66.3|66.3|65.1|65.8|65.2|65.3|63.7 CRE....64.1|65.7|65.0|64.1|64.3|66.4|65.8|65.0|65.5|65.3|65.5|63.0 FLO....64.6|66.3|65.2|65.2|65.2|66.2|66.3|65.7|65.5|65.6|65.9|63.5 LBT....63.4|65.4|64.4|64.6|64.3|64.6|65.3|64.5|64.5|64.5|65.2|62.1 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/VAO CLIMATE...VAO