837 

FXUS63 KICT 291718

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warm temperatures and gusty winds expected through the end of

  the week.



- Isolated rain chances later tonight, then again Tuesday and

  Wednesday evenings. Severe weather is not expected at this

  time.



- A Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon through

  Thursday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight a mid/upper 

low situated over the Northern Intermountain as ridging continues 

over Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, a deepening 

low in northeast Colorado has promoted continued gusty south winds 

across the forecast area. A dryline spans from this low southward 

into the Oklahoma Panhandle. 



TEMPERATURES/WINDS:



Increasing heights and thicknesses from upper ridging across the 

eastern CONUS will promote warm temperatures across the region today 

with highs once again in the low to upper 90s. Dewpoints near/above 

70 degrees areawide by this afternoon will combine with this heat to 

result in heat index values in the 100-105 degree range this 

afternoon into the early evening. Theta-e advection in the low/mid 

levels is expected to promote increased cloud coverage for Tuesday 

and Wednesday which will keep highs and associated heat indices a 

bit lower than previously anticipated (near/below 100). Heat index 

values in excess of 100 degrees will then return to south central 

and southeast Kansas beginning Thursday and lasting through the end 

of the week. Highest values to this point appear likely to reside in 

southeast Kansas where dewpoints in the low to middle 70s will 

persist.



Regarding winds, a tightened surface pressure gradient arising from 

continued lee troughing will promote gusty south winds across the 

area through week's end. This afternoon's setup appears similar to 

that of Sunday's, with sustained winds around 20-30 mph and gusts in 

the 35-40 mph range likely especially across portions of central and 

south central Kansas. Gusty south winds will likely last through the 

end of the week with little anticipated change to the surface 

pattern.



RAIN CHANCES:



Latest guidance continues to indicate embedded ripples in mid/upper 

flow that will allow for isolated to scattered shower and 

thunderstorm chances across portions of central Kansas (generally 

west of K-14) during the evening hours tonight, Tuesday, and 

Wednesday. Per the prior discussion, inverted-v soundings indicate 

the potential for a handful of strong wind gusts later this evening 

should activity manage to develop. On the whole, however, capping 

concerns raise doubts about extent of coverage this far east over 

the next several days. Better rain chances to this point appear to 

our west where convergence along the aforementioned dryline may

allow for storm development. As such, still thinking most of the

area will remain dry through the end of the week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Main 

concern to aviation is breezy southerly winds with sustained 

winds around 20 kts and gusts exceeding 30 kts. Gusts should 

decrease slightly after 00z with low-level wind shear ramping 

back up again this evening around 03z as the low-level jet 

strengthens. 



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053-

067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-048>053-

067>070-083.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JWK

AVIATION...GC