435 FXUS63 KICT 282022 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 222 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler air to move-in tonight and Sunday along with increased precip chances. A winter mix possible Sunday along and north of I-70 with some freezing drizzle possible Sunday night. - Storms chances increasing for Sun morning through the afternoon hours with some small hail possible. - Additional rain chances will be possible through much of the work week with the best chances likely Tuesday to Wednesday and Friday to Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Currently have a cold front stretching from near MCI to just south of I-70 with a pre frontal trough generally along the KS Turnpike. Strong northwest flow remains in the upper levels with broad troughing from the Upper Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes region. Cold front will continue to push south tonight and will be through the entire forecast area by 06z Sun. As far as the 12z models go with temps, the NAM is quite a bit colder than GFS/ECMWF/HRRR and decided not go that cold at this time. Current thinking is that showers and iso storms will develop late Sun morning as 850-700mb moisture transport quickly ramps up. In addition, we should have around 500J/KG of MUCAPE to work with which should result in some storms developing by the late morning and with some good directional shear in place, it's not out of the question we could see some hail up to dime or nickel size with this activity, or even some thundersleet where it's cold enough over central KS. With temps above freezing when the precip starts Sunday, not expecting much in the way of ice accumulation, with the exception potentially being a few bridges and overpasses. Mid level theta-e advection will gradually shift east late Sun afternoon, pushing the better precip chances east for Sun evening. Even though better shower/storm chances will shift east Sun evening, feel that drizzle will develop Sun night as models agree on low level saturation remaining behind. In addition, there looks to be some decent isentropic upglide in the saturated low levels. So current thinking is that main threat Sun night will be some freezing drizzle where temps are cold enough. As we move into Monday morning, precip should transition into drizzle in central KS as surface temperatures rise above freezing. Showers and a few storms will be possible in southern KS in the morning as WAA increases and isentropic ascent continues. Confidence is low with high temperatures on Monday given the model spread, expected cloud cover, and uncertainty with how fast temperatures might bounce back. For Monday afternoon and night, scattered showers and storm chances will increase to 20-50% across the area as surface winds shift to southeasterly/southerly and increase surface dewpoints. On late Monday night, 850 mb winds will strengthen from the approaching shortwave trough, helping to moisten the low-levels and aid in additional rain chances. An active pattern is possible for much of the work week as the upper air pattern remains unsettled with a few shortwaves expected to move through the Central Plains. The best chances for rain remain to be Tuesday through Wednesday with another round of rainfall possible on Friday and Saturday. For both of these periods, PWATs look to rise well-above normal to climatology for this time of year with values above 1" especially in southeast KS making heavy rainfall possible. Excessive rainfall or flooding are not anticipated at this time. Stay tuned as this forecast will continue to be refined. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Frontal boundary will continue to make its way across the area this afternoon, turning southwesterly winds out of the northwest. Winds will turn northeasterly later this evening, remaining so through the overnight time frame. Winds will generally remain around 10 knots through tonight. Sunday morning, winds will turn easterly and increase with sustained winds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Precipitation chances will also begin to increase after 15Z on Sunday, with more widespread precip chances expected just beyond the TAF period. Locations across central Kansas have the higher probability of seeing wintry precip, with HUT, ICT, and CNU likely remaining all rain. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...GC/RBL AVIATION...AMD