301 FXUS64 KHUN 010445 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Mostly dry conditions continue through much of the weekend with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees. - Very low rain chances return Sunday evening into early Monday, with a pattern change bringing our next chance at showers and storms later this coming week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Current temperatures are in the upper 40s to lower 50s across northern Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee at this hour. A weak prefrontal trough axis can be seen in surface analysis extending across Kentucky into extreme southern Missouri. This feature is located just south of fairly stationary frontal boundary extending from SE Kansas east into the southern Ohio Valley area. The pre-frontal trough axis has been moving almost due east this evening. A fairly large area of mid to high cloud cover has formed along this pre-frontal trough axis. Some very light precipitation is has been observed further north of this feature closer to the the actual stationary front further north. Models continue to move the disturbance due east (this has been the satellite trend as well this evening) overnight into the day on Sunday. Most of the more concentrated and thicker cloud cover will remain over Tennessee and Kentucky as this occurs. Though some brief mostly cloudy conditions will pass east through the area between 2 AM and 8 AM. This cloud cover will be mainly above 5000 or 6000 feet, so should not have a big impact on inhibiting radiational cooling. Expect temperatures to drop to their lowest values between now and around 2 AM with good radiational cooling much of that period, despite some high cloud cover quickly moving across the area. This should enable fog development around and just after midnight. Mainly patchy in nature and near/east of the I-65 corridor. Some thicker fog could occur in the valley areas of NE Alabama. Temperatures should increase after 2 AM or so as stronger warm air advection should develop south of the pre-frontal trough axis. Expect temperatures to climb back into the 45 to 50 degree range in most locations by sunrise on Sunday. Expect more persistent cloud cover to form ahead of another pre- frontal trough axis moving into eastern Oklahoma at this time. during the day on Sunday. This cloud cover should be thicker and more widespread. Thus, despite increasing warm air advection, highs will likely remain in the upper 60s to around 75 degrees in most locations. Forcing though will be extremely weak over the area and concentrated near the next pre-frontal trough axis much further west. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 As this second pre-frontal trough axis moves east-northeast through the afternoon hours into the evening hours on Sunday, stronger forcing moves east into the area. Strong enough forcing may extend just far enough south to produce a few showers near and north of the TN/AL border around 9 PM and into the morning hours on Monday. Cloudy conditions are expected for much of that period. This will help temper highs a bit. Temperatures will still reach the upper 60s to around 75 degrees, but without the cloud cover we would be likely talking about highs in the mid to upper 70s. Models continue to quickly push the upper level forcing ENE along the frontal boundary as it builds further north of the area on Tuesday. This should allow for a break from the cloud cover and warmer temperatures on Tuesday. Highs look to climb into the 73 to 78 degree range at least in response. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Not much change in the forecast through Wednesday, as the frontal boundary continues to move northeast and SSW flow builds over the southeast. Clouds should increase significantly though Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a storm system develops over the Rockies and begins pushing eastward towards the Tennessee Valley. This should continue the warming trend with highs reaching the 75 to 80 degree range likely on Wednesday. As the front moves closer to the Tennessee Valley region Wednesday night into the weekend, the surface high over the Atlantic doesn't want to budge much. Despite a good amount of cloud cover over the area, the strength of warm air advection may allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. There is some question whether showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front will push into NW Alabama on Thursday. For now kept 20 to 40 percent chances of rain and thunderstorms. Current guidance doesn't show much shear ahead of the front and weakens it significantly as it tries to move into NW Alabama. SBCAPE is between 500 and 1000 J/KG. However, helicity is weak as well in most guidance. Thus, mainly expecting run of the mill thunderstorm activity with frequent lightning and heavy downpours if we realize convection. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Very dry air in place over the terminals will keep any fog from forming, despite light winds overnight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 The Climate Prediction Center has included northwestern and north-central Alabama, and southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 7th through 11th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period. The Climate Prediction Center has also included far northwestern Alabama, which includes western portions of Lauderdale and Colbert Counties in a High Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 7th through 10th. There is a 60-80% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2.5 inches during this period. More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...KTW