053 FXUS64 KHUN 282314 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 514 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 942 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Mostly dry conditions continue through much of the weekend with highs in the 70s. - Very low rain chances return Sunday evening into early Monday, with a pattern change bringing our next chance at showers and storms later this coming week. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Dry air continues in place across the Tennessee Valley as an upper trough pivots into the northeast coast and northwest flow persists aloft. Afternoon temps have risen into the low to mid 70s under abundant sunshine and calm winds. No major changes were needed during the afternoon update and the previous forecast remains on track. Previous discussion: Mostly clear skies will continue through most of tonight as well, along with a bit warmer lows than we've seen recently (mid to upper 40s). Although, with these forecast lows, dew points remaining in the 40s, light to calm winds, and mostly clear skies, there is a low chance of patchy fog later tonight. This is especially true for sheltered areas and near bodies of water. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 942 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Northwest flow aloft from a passing upper trough will give way to brief and subtle ridging slated to move into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday and into early this next week. Although, there looks to be a few ripples of very subtle shortwaves moving along this flow pattern. Additionally, the aforementioned surface front to our north over the Ohio Valley is expected to sag south over the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. Not a lot of moisture looks to be associated with this feature; therefore, maintained persistence with a low chance (10-20%) of showers Sunday evening through very early Monday morning, especially north of the Tennessee River. Little to no instability is shown by model guidance as well, so no thunderstorms are forecast with this activity. Dry weather (no rain) will follow for the rest of the day on Monday. As for temperatures, another day with highs in the lower to mid 70s is anticipated on Sunday. Lows will also remain warm with a slight increase in moisture with the incoming front. Therefore, temperatures are expected to only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Not much of a cooldown is forecast as the front moves through on Monday, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1001 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Upper ridging will gradually spread east through the work week which will keep us in a warm sectored airmass through the long term period. While models are in fairly good agreement about the large scale synoptic pattern, details about embedded waves/disturbances are a bit more uncertain at this range. A front is forecast to stall just north of the region late Monday into Tuesday which would favor a drier forecast pattern, but small shifts in the pattern could drive our currently low chance PoPs upward if the ridge is suppressed farther south than currently indicated. Temps will warm from the lower 70s to near 80 degrees by Friday with low chances for rain and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and stretching through the remainder of the week. While confidence remains low regarding when and how much thunderstorm activity we will see next week, the pattern will start to favor more active weather as we head into the weekend. Be sure to stay tuned for forecast updates especially if you have plans late next week! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Very dry air in place over the terminals will keep any fog from forming, despite light winds overnight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 The Climate Prediction Center has included northwestern and north-central Alabama, and southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 7th through 11th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period. The Climate Prediction Center has also included far northwestern Alabama, which includes western portions of Lauderdale and Colbert Counties in a High Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 7th through 10th. There is a 60-80% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2.5 inches during this period. More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...KTW