876 FXUS64 KHUN 301731 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1131 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Cold today with afternoon high temperatures likely to remain only in the 30s and lows tonight in the low/mid 20s. - A warming trend will begin Wednesday and continue through early next week - Medium-high chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Friday/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Low clouds associated with a weak re-enforcing trough axis that were scattered over portions of NW Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this morning have dissipated. Temperatures after bottoming out in the lower to mid 20s have been slow to climb this morning. Currently, temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations. Northwesterly winds are between 5 and 10 mph with a few higher gusts. Expect this to continue into the afternoon hours. Cold air advection is expected to continue today. Very dry air aloft is seen in 12 soundings around 925 mb. Looks like it will warm more than enough to mix up to this level this morning into the afternoon hours. Thus, lowered dewpoints and afternoon relative humidity values significantly, especially in NW Alabama. Afternoon relative humidity values will likely fall into the 25 to 35 percent range across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Another clipper system with very little low level moisture is forecast to push quickly southeast from the Northern Plains into the Tennessee Valley late this afternoon. The front should remain well NW of the area through the day with little cloud cover moving into southern Tennessee until the mid/late afternoon hours. This cloud cover could help to keep highs in TN in the mid 30s. Despite more sunshine further south, highs will struggle to climb above the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Some mid level clouds will push further southeast into northern Alabama this evening. These clouds should push southeast of the area quickly after midnight. Winds look to decouple in most locations this evening, before picking up a bit behind the front overnight. The exceptions may be in the higher elevations, where winds may not go calm and remain between 5 and 10 mph. Lows will likely be just tad cooler compared to last night dropping into 22 to 28 degree range. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 1056 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 With sunshine despite some brief on and off cloud cover, a general warming trend is expected starting Wednesday. The building upper level ridge over the Gulf coast states should help to warm things up with boundary layer westerly to weak southerly flow returning. Highs should finally warm back into the 45 to 51 degree range in most locations (47 to 51 degrees NW AL) by Wednesday with another quick shot of cloudy conditions moving across the area again late in the afternoon into the early evening hours, courtesy of a weak stalled frontal boundary. Lows should only drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Wednesday night. As the area of high pressure over the Gulf coast states builds further north, highs on Thursday under sunny skies should climb into the mid to upper 50s. A few lower 60s may be possible towards NW Alabama and Cullman county. Overall, a dry and seasonable to warm New Years Eve and New Years Day (Thursday) will be on tap for the Tennessee Valley, with an area of high pressure at the surface still the dominant weather feature, with zonal flow continuing aloft. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2025 Our next weather maker is set to move in on Friday as a shortwave digs into the Deep South and sfc low pressure tracks across portions of Alabama. Southwest winds boundary layer winds will keep temps on the warm side Thursday night into Friday as increasing low level moisture brings overcast skies to the area by Friday morning. Right now there is fairly decent agreement among models that the sfc low will track either over central AL or further south, keeping us outside of the risk for any severe weather but right along the axis of heavier rainfall where some locations may receive up to 1" (south of the Tennessee River). We will have to monitor trends with surface based instability to make sure it do not nose further northward Friday afternoon into the early evening hours, when better shear will still be in place. However, the fact that the shortwave is pushing southeast through NW flow upstream, not expecting this to occur. Also, localized flooding issues are not expected given the high flash flooding guidance values and the abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions over the area per the U.S. Drought Monitor. Enough elevated instability may be present to support a few thunderstorms Friday evening (again south of the Tennessee River) as the heaviest activity moves through but this should all come to an end by midnight on Friday night. Light to briefly moderate light rain could continue wrapping around the surface low through Saturday morning. After this, dry conditions are forecast beginning Sunday with warmer highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s and lows near 40 degrees as we head into the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be lighter and this evening may become light and variable at the terminals. Winds should pick up though after 06Z to around 5 kts, behind a quickly moving an dry clipper system that may bring some high CIGS to the area towards and into the early evening hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...KTW