076 FXUS64 KHUN 300540 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1140 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 940 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 - Early morning wind chills tomorrow will range from 5-10F in elevated terrain to 10-15F in the valley, with afternoon temps likely to remain in the 30s. - A warming trend will begin Wednesday and continue through early next week, with medium-high chances for rain on Friday/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM... (This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 957 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, our forecast area will remain under the influence of a cold core vortex that will shift northeastward from the northern Great Lakes into southern QC by the end of the period. As a weakening mid-level shear axis (extending southwestward from the upper low) tracks further southeastward and away from the region this evening, intense (80-100 kt) westerly flow aloft will veer to northwest and gradually diminish. In the lower-levels, a 4-5 mb pressure gradient will persist across the region overnight and into early Tuesday afternoon, along the eastern periphery of an arctic high dropping southward from the central into the southern Plains. This will maintain moderate- strong northwest winds, and with air temperatures currently in the 25-30F range wind chills have already dropped to 15-20F as of this writing. It is becoming increasingly apparent that both boundary layer mixing and clouds will offset advection to some extent and should have an impact on overnight low temperatures, as an overcast stratus layer to our north (roughly aligned with a thermal trough in the wake of the departing mid-level shear axis) will provide at least a temporary period of cloudy skies to all but the southwestern corner of the CWFA. With this in mind, we will not deviate from blended guidance predictions of lows in the upper teens-lower 20s, but these may be a bit too cold if clouds remain prevalent for a longer period of time. Abundant sunshine is expected for much of the day tomorrow (after early morning clouds disperse), but due to continuing CAA temperatures will struggle to reach the 35-40F range and may not rise above freezing in elevated terrain. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 957 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Latest short range model consensus indicates that dry northwest flow aloft will continue across the local forecast area through the duration of the short term period. At the surface, a ridge axis extending northeastward off a weakening arctic high across south TX will nose into the region from the southwest tomorrow evening, providing a period of light/variable-calm winds and an environment favorable for radiational cooling. However, with high- level clouds (related to a clipper system to our north) expected to increase in coverage as early as late tomorrow afternoon, overnight lows may be a couple of degrees warmer (compared to tonight) on Wednesday morning. As the remnant low-level anticyclone across south TX spreads southeastward across the Gulf from Wednesday into Thursday, light-moderate WSW flow will result in a modest warming trend to the south of a reinforcing cold front (that will stall across TN on Thursday). Highs will return to the u40s-l50s on Wednesday and l-m 50s on Thursday, as lows rise back into the m20s-l30s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 957 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Our next weather maker is set to move in on Friday as a shortwave digs into the Deep South and sfc low pressure tracks across northern Alabama. Southwest winds will keep temps on the warm side Thursday night into Friday as increasing tropical moisture brings overcast skies to the area by Friday morning. Right now there is fairly decent agreement among models that the sfc low will track either over north AL or just to our south, keeping us outside of the risk for any severe weather but right along the axis of heavier rainfall where some locations may receive up to 1". Localized flooding concerns remain very low especially considering the area is listed as either abnormally dry or in a moderate drought per the U.S. Drought Monitor. Enough elevated instability may be present to support a few thunderstorms Friday night as the heaviest activity moves through but this should all come to an end by Saturday afternoon. A weak cold front will move through on Saturday but we will see little change in temperatures as the upper ridge to our west remains the dominant influence on our weather locally. After this, dry conditions are forecast beginning Sunday with warmer highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s and lows near 40 degrees as we head into the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 A northwest wind of 8G16 kts will continue at the terminals during the early morning hours, as a postfrontal cold air stratus layer spreads southeastward, providing intermittent periods of low-VFR to high-MVFR cigs (2500-3500 ft). These conds will persist through 15Z, before skies clear and winds strengthen to 10G20 kts. Sfc winds will subside and back to WNW late tomorrow aftn (before becoming lgt/vrbl during the evening hours), with an increasing coverage of high-lvl Cs anticipated as well. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...70/DD