838 FXUS66 KHNX 302305 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 305 PM PST Tue Dec 30 2025 .UPDATE... New key messages and aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Flood Watch from 10pm Wednesday to 10pm Thursday for for the southern and eastern Kern county. 2. High confidence for heavy rain Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Kern County, then spreading across the entire region Thursday. 3. Probability of 60%-70% for 1” of rain in 48 hours in the higher elevations and deserts of Kern county. Areas which received the heaviest rainfall last week, are most vulnerable to flooding. 4.Storm #2 arriving Friday night into Saturday morning, impacting the foothills of Mariposa, Madera and Fresno counties the most. && .AVIATION... Low confidence forecast overnight, although guidance is showing dense fog again, solid mid and high clouds are expected to preclude dense fog, except for KMER which still remains at 3SM as of writing. Worst case scenario, would be the development of IFR ceilings as oppossed to visibility through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM PST Tue Dec 30 2025/ DISCUSSION... Patchy dense fog will continue in the San Joaquin Valley at times this evening. At this time, the lowest visibility is around Merced, or at 1/4 mile. However, dense fog becomes more widespread in the Central Valley later tonight. The fog may be a bit slower to clear than yesterday, but short-term ensemble guidance suggest it will lift by Noon Tuesday. Some high clouds arrive by late Tuesday afternoon and will herald the arrival of the next storm system. Models continue to show a trajectory of subtropical moisture from the south that arrive arrive in Kern County by Wednesday morning. The probability of 0.01 inch of precipitation in Kern County is at least 50-60 percent by early Wednesday morning, though with a higher likelihood towards western Kern County. Chances for measurable precipitation begin later Wednesday morning across the forecast area. Snow levels begin very high on Wednesday, or about 9,000 to 10,000 feet, then lower to around 8,000 feet by New Year's Day. Several inches of snow are forecast to accumulate in the highest elevations. There is a high probability (70-80%) that many locations in the mountains from Yosemite NP to the Frazier Park area will see at least 0.50 inch by New Year's Day. Otherwise, lighter amounts are more likely to occur on the valley floor, but there is a 30-40 percent chance of a half inch. However, there is a 40-50 percent chance that the Kern County desert will see at least 0.50 inch, and this could lead to localized flooding. Chances for precipitation linger into Friday, and another storm system arrives Friday night into the weekend. Lesser precipitation amounts are projected, but this will be a colder system. Although, the probability of 0.50 inch of rain in the mountain areas is about 40-50 percent from late Friday until late Saturday. As of now, snow levels are forecast to lower to around 7,000 feet on Friday and lower even more, or to 6,000 feet, by late Saturday. There is moderate confidence that another several inches of snow will accumulate at elevations mainly above 7,000 feet. Otherwise, lingering light showers continue Sunday into next Monday. The Climate Prediction Center continues to favor above average precipitation for next week into the following week along with above average temperatures for much of the Golden State. AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Tuesday December 30 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for CAZ333>339. Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ335. && $$ public...Mattarochia aviation....Mattarochia weather.gov/hanford