230 FXUS64 KHGX 290529 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1229 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to major heat risk today, with generally moderate heat risk each day through Thursday. Peak heat index values between 103-108F (39-42C). - High rip current risk along area beaches through this evening - Low to moderate rain chances Tuesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Mid-lvl ridging over the Mississippi Valley will continue to shift northeastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by mid-week before the Western US trough/eastern US ridge configuration begins to break down Friday into the weekend. The subsequent CONUS synoptic pattern will be characterized by dual ridges over the SE CONUS and Southwest with a low amplitude inverted trough (weakness) positioned in the vicinity of the western Gulf and SE TX. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will shift westward towards the mid-week period somewhat relaxing the pressure gradient over our area before shifting back east in the late week period. Rain chances today will continue to be limited by dry air aloft, reinforced by the ongoing Saharan Dust intrusion. There remains just enough low-lvl moisture and near-coastal convergence in breezy southerly flow to support low-end rain chances around 10% but coverage and intensity appears quite spotty. As the SAL plume exits to the north on Tuesday, sea-breeze induced convective coverage will increase as PWATs increase into the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range, so bumped up PoPs into the 20-35% range focused just inland of the coast. Storm coverage in the mid to late week period will generally be isolated-scattered and largely sea-breeze induced as the weak disturbances progressing along the southern flank of the ridge will focus higher rain chances over Louisiana and far east Texas. Rain chances for the July 4th weekend look to be about 15-30% but confidence is not high in details at this time horizon. Did think at least consider a heat advisory for inland locations today as some warmer spots may briefly hit ApparentT criteria, but the SAL plume would nudge me against issuance, as we may mix just enough drier air down to keep peak heat indices in the 105 to 108 degree range. Regardless of headlines, heat-related precautions should still definitely be taken with moderate to major heat risk and generally red (high) WBGT risk. Peak heat indices in the 103-107 range will continue to be the norm through most of the upcoming workweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 530 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ALl sites at VFR with conditions remaining VFR for most sites through around 08Z. Terminals north of I-45 are anticipated to experience MVFR CIGs during the early morning hours Monday. Confidence is low as to whether or not DWH/IAH will experience MVFR CIGs, but have mentioned the possibility briefly from approximately 11Z-14Z. Conditions return to VFR levels at all sites by mid morning. Winds through the period will generally be out of the southeast at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts through the evening hours. Winds overnight will be light out of the southeast. Monday afternoon winds are anticipated to increase to around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bailey && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Fresh southerly winds this morning will decrease into the moderate range this afternoon and then further decrease into the gentle range in the mid-week period as the pressure gradient slackens. 3 to 5 foot seas this morning will decrease to 2 to 3 feet by mid-week. There will be a high risk of rip currents today and this elevated risk may persist into Tuesday. Very low rain chances today will increase into the low and medium range Tuesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 93 77 94 / 10 20 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 83 89 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...NC AVIATION...Bailey MARINE...NC