081 FXUS64 KHGX 280633 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1233 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend, especially in the coastal areas. - Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of next week. - Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 This weekend will be featuring mostly sunny skies during the daytime with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s, but then mostly cloudy skies and areas of fog expected during the overnight hours. Fog will have the greatest chance of forming along the coast as sea fog rolls in from the waters during the overnight and early morning hours. The fog should scatter out through the mid-morning hours, but some patchy sea fog may linger in the coastal waters into the afternoons. The abnormally warm weather should lead to warming ocean temperatures, so sea fog potential does decrease as we head into the new week. A building upper-level ridge will begin to position itself over eastern Texas Monday into Tuesday leading to even warmer weather with highs in the mid-80s expected by Tuesday with some pockets of upper 80s possible in the Brazos Valley. An upper-level low moving through the Great Basin region will push the aforementioned high pressure to the east on Wednesday. This will set up the upper- level pattern through the remainder of the week: high pressure to the east, troughing to the west, with southwesterly flow aloft between those two features set-up over SE Texas. Forecast uncertainty does increase as we head into the second half of next week as a couple of cold front approach the region. The first will be Wednesday into Thursday, and at this time this front appears to stall near the I-35 Corridor. However, passing weaknesses aloft and increased PWATs will lead to a chance of rain across SE Texas on Wednesday. And if this front ends up making its way deeper into SE Texas, then PoPs will likely increase. Another front may approach the region next weekend as well, but its a bit too soon to get into the details. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Northeasterly to southeasterly winds will trend towards becoming light and variable going into the evening hours. The main story continues to be patchy to areas of dense fog. Drier air in the wake of a weak cold front continues to encompass most of the area except right along the coast where sea fog is already lurking offshore. This drier air will gradually modify overnight as dew points increase, especially near and south of I-10. Model guidance reflects a rather sharp cutoff between LIFR conditions due to dense fog and VFR conditions. The highest confidence for patchy fog is south of I-10 and west of I-45. IAH looks to be right on the edge. Given the potential for fog advecting off of Lake Houston, I kept in the TEMPO for them overnight. Any fog/low ceilings that develop will dissipate around 15Z-16Z making way for VFR conditions and southeasterly winds around 7-10 kt through the afternoon. Expecting another round of reduced visibilities/ceilings Saturday night into Sunday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Areas of dense sea fog are expected to persist through Saturday morning. The coastal waters, Matagorda Bay, and lower Galveston Bay will have the highest coverage of dense fog, with patchy dense fog expected for the upper Galveston Bay. The fog is expected to retreat from the Bays during the mid-morning hours, but may linger in the coastal waters through the afternoon. Another round of fog is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chance for dense fog is looking lower Sunday night into Monday morning as persistent warm weather aids in rising SSTs, and thus limiting sea fog development. Otherwise, expect low seas and light onshore winds to prevail into early next week. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 58 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 73 62 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ226-227- 235>238-335>338-436>439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Fowler