343 FXHW60 PHFO 291851 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 851 AM HST Mon Jun 29 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist into the upcoming weekend. Bands of low clouds and showers will be at times be carried in on the trades, focused primarily over windward and mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours. One such band is moving through the islands today and tonight. Additionally, humidity levels will rise, bringing muggier conditions across the island chain through the middle of this week. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... No major changes to the forecast this morning. The grids and forecast were updated to reflect the latest NBM for most grids, and the high resolution model data for the winds in the short term. In general, PoPs were raised for today and tonight with the band of moisture moving through. Otherwise minor changes from the previous forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM HST Mon Jun 29 2026 Currently at the surface, a 1037 mb high is centered around 1650 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, driving moderate trade winds across the island chain this evening. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across much of the state, with a few leeward areas experiencing less cloud coverage. Radar imagery shows numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with some showers spilling over into leeward communities at times. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances. High pressure will meander well to the north of state during the next 7 days, keeping moderate, to at times locally breezy, trade winds solidly in place. Somewhat wetter than normal, summertime trade wind weather is expected through the period, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during the night and early morning hours. A couple bands of enhanced moisture will affect the state this week, bringing an increase in shower coverage and intensity as they move through. The first batch of enhanced moisture is already affecting the island chain, and will continue to do so through the day today, before exiting to the west of the state tonight. The next area of enhanced moisture is located around 550 miles east-northeast of the state in the vicinity of 147W. Portions of this area of enhanced moisture will begin to affect the islands beginning Tuesday night, and lingering into early Thursday, increasing shower coverage and intensity once again. Both these bands will raise precipitable water values into the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range and elevate inversion heights to between 10 and 12 kft. Some locally heavy rainfall can't be ruled out as these bands of moisture move through, particularly the second batch of moisture affecting the islands during the middle of the week. That said, with the trades in place, a widespread flash flood threat is not expected, but some minor flooding could very well necessitate flood advisories over windward and mauka areas during this time. Additionally, dewpoints are forecast to increase to around 70 or the lower 70s today through the middle of the week, making it feel more muggy across the island chain. && .AVIATION... Low clouds and scattered showers associated with a dissipated trough will push through the island chain today. Breezy trade winds will focus showers across windward sides, with a few showers reaching leeward sides of the smaller islands. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration above 2000 feet for windward sides of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Big Island due to these showers. Expecting this AIRMET to remain in effect at least through early afternoon, and potentially the rest of today, until this moisture moves west of the area. AIRMET Tango is also posted for tempo moderate leeward turbulence below 8000 feet for all islands due to the breezy trade winds. Expect this AIRMET to continue at least for the next couple of days. && .MARINE... An area of surface high pressure will remain centered well north of the Hawaiian Islands this week and help drive moderate to fresh trades trades across the region. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through this afternoon for much of the waters around Maui County and Big Island, as well as the Kaiwi Channel. The SCA will then be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island by this evening as trades ease slightly into Tuesday. The current moderate, long-period south swell will maintain today, then gradually decline through midweek, leading to a decreasing trend in south and west shore surf through Wednesday. A small bump in south shore surf is possible Thursday into Friday with the arrival of a small, long-period south swell, but another larger long-period south swell energy pulse should arrive by late Saturday. Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week with moderate to fresh trades in place. Nearly flat surf heights will persist along north facing shores. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jelsema AVIATION...Foster MARINE...Quesada SHORT TERM UPDATE...M Ballard