577 FXHW60 PHFO 280657 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 857 PM HST Fri Feb 27 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A light trade wind pattern will continue through Sunday as a weakening cold front approaches Kauai from the west. Local scale onshore seabreezes will form over all islands due to the lack of large scale winds. The eastward movement of this front will stall out near Kauai on Sunday and Monday as the front dissipates over the western islands. Expect increasing clouds and periods of showers over Kauai and Niihau during this time period. East to southeast winds will continue through much of next week with moderate to locally breezy trade winds are forecast to develop across the Hawaii region with limited shower activity will last through the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... The big picture satellite imagery this evening shows a large band of fairly stable clouds east to southeast of the Big Island. Expect some of these clouds to drift into the southeast slopes of the Big Island this weekend, producing a few periods of showers along the Kau and Puna District slopes from the afternoon into the early evening time period. A large band of high level cirrus clouds will continue to advect high level ice clouds over the islands producing mostly cloudy skies lasting into the first half of next week. The afternoon forecast looks good. No evening updates. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 PM HST Fri Feb 27 2026 Satellite shows partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Winds were out of the east-southeast over the water, and highly variable over land. Radar indicates isolated light showers, mainly over Kauai and the Big Island. A shallow upper level ridge axis will basically remain over the islands through Saturday before moving off to the east Sunday. A trough will replace it, and attempt to push a boundary (weak cold front) into the western end of the state. The latest guidance shows it will most likely make it to Kauai County, with a lower but still notable chance to make it to Oahu. Upper level support will be minimal, so there is very little chance for heavy rain even though low level moisture will increase significantly. This front pulls back off to the west by Tuesday as a strong surface high pressure system develops to the northeast, and fairly strong trades are forecast to quickly build back into the area beginning Tuesday. Showers will follow a typical trade wind pattern, falling mainly windward and mauka. Looking long range - there are no indications of significant weather systems through next weekend. && .AVIATION... Light to moderate east to east-southeast winds will prevail over the islands as a front approaches from the west. The winds will be light enough to allow land breezes through the night and daytime sea breezes. Rather dry conditions will persist, with light showers limited primarily to windward areas. No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected through the forecast period. && .MARINE... Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds will continue through the weekend as a cold front stalls and diminishes near the western end of the state. This will allow localized land and sea breeze conditions to develop near sheltered coasts over the weekend, particularly over Kauai and Oahu. Fresh to strong easterly trades will return early next week as the surface ridge strengthens to the north. Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend up Saturday as a fresh west-northwest swell arrives from a broad gale that was located south of the Aleutians near the Date Line. This swell will peak early next week before gradually lowering into midweek. Surf along exposed east-facing shores will ease into Saturday, then trend up slightly by Sunday as a fresh, short- to medium- period northeast swell from a gale centered around 1200 nautical miles northeast of the state arrives. Short-period and choppy conditions are expected to return by midweek as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state. Surf along south-facing shores will remain near the seasonal average into March. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Bohlin PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...Shigesato MARINE...Gibbs