265 FXPQ50 PGUM 290831 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 631 PM ChST Mon Jun 29 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite and radar imagery show scattered showers across all the Marianas with slightly higher coverage for Rota and likely Guam early tonight. Scattered showers are expected to continue through tomorrow but will remain weak. Buoy and model data show combined seas of 3 to 5 feet. && .Discussion... Weak periods of scattered and isolated showers are expected to continue for the next several days, but otherwise the Marianas looks to stay fairly dry all week. Scattered showers are currently expected through tomorrow, and then on Wednesday night and Thursday night. A similar pattern of showers is expected Friday and Independence Day with shower coverage wavering between isolated and scattered with the exact timing of scattered showers remaining uncertain. Precipitation and winds may begin increasing by Sunday due to increased moisture ahead of the tropical disturbance (Invest 95W) currently located near the Marshall Islands. && .Marine... Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet and light to fresh trade winds are present tonight for the Marianas. The main swell is the east- northeast trade wind swell. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing reefs likely for the whole week. Winds are expected to be light to gentle tomorrow and much of the week. Seas may drop very slightly to 3 to 4 feet as trade winds weaken gradually. Scattered showers are expected tonight through tomorrow, possibly returning Wednesday night and Thursday. Seas and surf could start building Saturday, July 4th as a swell from 95W approaches the Marianas. && .Tropical Systems... Invest 95W is currently draped across the central Marshall Islands as an elongated, disorganized disturbance, with a centerpoint located around 9N168E, roughly north of Kwajalein. This centerpoint is roughly halfway between two circulation centers that have yet to fully consolidate. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) still rates Invest 95W as "medium" for development, meaning it will likely develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a Tropical Depression), but not within 24 hours. Satellite imagery late this afternoon shows deep, flaring convection developing along and south of the far western edge of Invest 95W, while convection has weakened along the eastern circulation center, to the north of Majuro. For now, models favor a gradual consolidation about the westernmost circulation through tonight and Tuesday, with 95W then strengthening as it meanders north-northwest across the northwestern RMI into the latter half of the week, as a fairly large storm with potential to become a typhoon. There is still high uncertainty as to the eventual track of Invest 95W, but it will be closely monitored for the potential of any impacts to the Marianas in the coming days. For more information on Invest 95W, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. Invest 96W, far to the west, has exited the region west of 130E as it moves over the Philippine Sea. However, southwest monsoon flow behind the disturbance will continue to support a wet pattern across the Republic of Palau and portions of Yap State over the next few days. && .Eastern Micronesia... Majuro: What an interesting 24 hours its been for Majuro. As expected, a strong southwesterly wind burst rolled through the area, with a couple winds gusts around 35 mph observed at one observation after 3 AM. Additional, one boat broke its mooring and was grounded on a beach, with damage to infrastructure and coastal wall failure also observed. This is courtesy of Invest 95W which has stalled northwest of Kwajalein. This disturbance is what helped usher in those wind gusts and some heavy rainfall. Unfortunately, additional periods of heavy rainfall could hamper recovery efforts over the next 24 hours or so. With 95W stationary, those west to southwest winds will persist as well during this time, but at least they'll be somewhat weaker. In general, look for winds of 10 to 20 mph, with a few gusts to 30 mph possible (mainly with heavier showers). Given the frequent gust potential to 25 knots (30 mph), the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 3 AM. Also, with the continued west-southwest fetch, the Coastal Inundation Headline holds as well. As we head towards the latter half of the week, 95W will be moving away, with slowly improving conditions expected. Pohnpei and Kosrae: Here too the unusual wind directions continue, with Pohnpei seeing winds gradually back from northwesterlies to westerly over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, Kosrae will maintain a mainly southwest wind direction. As we head into the latter half of the week, these winds will back further, eventually becoming southerly, then southeasterly, as Invest 95W passes by well north of the region. However, a monsoon- like southwesterly flow is expected to develop over the next few days, which will probably bring periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The benefit of this will be cooler afternoon temperatures. Things should start to "wind down" by the weekend. && .Western Micronesia... A wet monsoon pattern continues across the Republic of Palau, associated with JTWC's Invest 96W, which has crossed west of 130E as it moves over the Philippine Sea. A broad band of deep, flaring convection has developed northward and over Koror this afternoon, with gusty southwest winds associated with the heavier showers. Numerous locally heavy showers are expected to continue across the area tonight, then gradually diminish through tomorrow afternoon as 96W pulls farther away and the monsoon pattern begins to weaken. Yap will see low-end scattered showers continue tonight on the far outer periphery of this pattern, but overall can expect drier weather through much of the week with prevailing light trade winds. Chuuk similarly remains in a dry doldrum-like pattern, positioned just south of an elongated col area, between Invest 95W over eastern Micronesia and a weak NET disturbance in Yap State. Light to gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the next few days. Slightly wetter conditions may begin to develop in the latter half of the week as 95W develops to the east, and stronger west to southwest winds build into the area, bringing an increase in moisture. Benign marine conditions continue, with altimetry and Yap buoy data suggesting combined seas between 3 and 4 feet across much of the region. Palau can expect most of its swell energy out of the southwest over the next day or two, associated with the ongoing monsoon pattern, before an easterly swell prevails in the latter half of the week. Chuuk will see an increase in seas by the end of the week, associated with an increase in northeast swell from developing Invest 95W. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Ogle East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia/Tropical: DeCou