716 FXPQ50 PGUM 282002 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 602 AM ChST Mon Jun 29 2026 .Marianas Update... Looks like a few extra showers today, and possibly again on Thursday. Really nothing to make a big deal over though. Otherwise, what we see is more of what we get, at least until the weekend. At that point the approach of the tropical disturbance Invest Area 95W could bring enough of an increase in winds and waves to upset the apple cart. && .Fire weather... Fire danger remains low after the airport got a substantial rain a couple of days ago. The KBDI will rise the next few days though, so much will depend on what the tropical disturbance 95W does as it approaches the Marianas. && .Tropical Systems... Invest 95W, located near the western Marshall Islands at around 7N166E, remains a weak, disorganized disturbance, but has shown signs of strengthening. Satellite imagery depicts a very broad region of flaring, deep convection extending into the southern periphery of 95W, associated with a maturing westerly wind burst near the Equator. Scatterometry from last evening reveals an area of fresh to strong winds located over the southern RMI, just south of 95W's center, pointing to further development. Invest 95W is still rated "medium" for development, but is being reviewed for an upgrade to "high" due to a favorable environment. This would mean it will likely develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a Tropical Depression), within the next 24 hours. Models still show gradual strengthening over the next few days as 95W begins to move across the Marshall Islands. Invest 96W, embedded within the far western edge of the near- equatorial trough (NET), remains rated as a "sub-low," meaning development is possible, but not expected over the next few days. It is located to the north of Palau, centered roughly at 8.5N132.5E, and continues to support locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Convection within the southwesterly monsoon flow behind Invest 96W will maintain an unsettled pattern for Palau over the next couple days as the disturbance pulls away to the northwest, and could soon leave Micronesia by crossing over 130E. For more information, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. && .Eastern Micronesia Update... Little change was needed for the Eastern Micronesia forecast this morning. Majuro was about to get some heavy rain, and the forecast was already brining it. Kosrae and Pohnpei were lower key in both weather and wording, so the forecast was largely good to go as was. The main feature is Invest Area 95W, which is creating west winds and potential for lagoon side flooding on Majuro's east side. && .Western Micronesia Update... Koror Palau's weather forecast was fairly wet, and should be, so no changes needed there. Chuuk's forecast was fairly dry, and should be, so no changes needed there either. The convection for Yap is having trouble materializing, so dried out Yap's forecast today. Left it scattered tonight for now, we will continue to monitor. Probably going to take the under on that bet though. 96W is probably going to move into the Philippine Sea, and the monsoon trough will remain south of Palau and Yap, although it could be close enough to Palau to influence them a bit. && .Prev discussion... /issued 700 PM ChST Sun Jun 28 2026/ Marianas Synopsis... Satellite and radar imagery show isolated showers drifting through the Marianas. Scattered showers visible to our east and possibly isolated thunderstorms will arrive late tonight for Tinian and Saipan, with coverage shifting south overnight to cover all islands by Monday. Scattered showers will remain Monday night. Buoy and model data show combined seas of 3 to 5 feet for Guam and Rota and 4 to 5 feet for Tinian and Saipan will continue to slowly diminish throughout the week. Discussion... Isolated showers this evening will be replaced by scattered showers late tonight for Tinian and Saipan. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as wind shear increases over all islands and a weak upper level low moves over the region. These scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will fill in for all islands by early morning with slightly higher precipitation chances for Tinian and Saipan. Mid- level wind shear and the upper-level low are expected to become negligible by Monday night, so no thunderstorms are expected. However, moisture will remain sufficient for scattered showers. Drier air and isolated showers may return Tuesday and Wednesday before another band of moisture brings more scattered showers around Thursday. Currently, models indicate just isolated showers by Friday and Independence Day. Temperatures may reach up to 90 on Independence Day ahead of Invest 95W (discussed in the "Tropical Systems" section below). Marine... Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet for Guam and Rota and 4 to 5 feet for Tinian and Saipan will continue to slowly diminish tonight as both east and west swells weaken. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east-facing reefs tonight through Monday night. Gentle east winds will prevail tonight through early this week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected after midnight for Tinian and Saipan, and then for all islands Monday. Scattered showers will remain Monday night. Another wave of scattered showers is possible Thursday. Swell from current Invest 95W could start to build into the Marianas as soon as July 4th depending on its strength. This will be monitored closely. Tropical Systems... Invest 95W, located near the western Marshall Islands at around 6N166E, remains a weak, disorganized disturbance, but has shown signs of strengthening. Satellite imagery depicts a very broad region of flaring, deep convection extending into the southern periphery of 96W, associated with a developing westerly wind burst near the Equator. Scatterometry from this morning reveals an area of strong to near-gale winds located over the southern RMI, just south of 95W's center, pointing to further development. Invest 95W is now rated "medium" for development, meaning it will likely develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a Tropical Depression), but not within 24 hours. Models continue to depict gradual strengthening over the next few days as 95W shifts north across the Marshall Islands. Invest 96W, embedded within the far western edge of the near- equatorial trough (NET), remains rated as a "sub-low," meaning development is possible, but not expected over the next few days. It is located to the north of Palau, centered roughly at 10N134E, and continues to support locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Convection within the southwesterly monsoon flow behind Invest 96W will maintain an unsettled pattern for Yap and Palau over the next few days as the disturbance pulls away to the northwest. For more information, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. Eastern Micronesia... The main focus was on Majuro. Additional efforts were made to try to "time" wind direction changes at Majuro regarding the synoptic winds associated with Invest 95W. Additionally, focus was placed on rainfall potential for these areas. For Pohnpei, being the furthest location from Invest 95W currently, the focus was on rainfall potential and timing. A similar concern was also noted at Kosrae, with an additional focus on later-developing north to northeast swell potential, as discussed in the Special Weather Statement. As for marine conditions, the winds will be light to moderate near Majuro, becoming fresh to strong at times. At Kosrae and Pohnpei, light to gentle winds can be expected. Seas of 4 to 6 feet can be expected through the period, locally higher in the 6 to 9 foot range outside Majuro's coastal waters to the south. This will continue to be monitored as it could affect Majuro and possibly Kosrae in time, but for now the "brunt" of the wind-driven higher waves will be in the south central RMI. Western Micronesia... A wet pattern is expected for Palau over the next few days as monsoon flow, wrapping into nearby Invest 96W, generates heavy showers and gusty southwest winds. Latest Himawari visible satellite imagery depicts drier conditions this afternoon with most of the convection focused to the west of Palau, but model and satellite trends point to a build-up of showers across the area beginning late overnight tonight and peaking Monday. Widespread heavy showers are expected by Monday afternoon, and latest ensemble guidance suggests rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches through Monday night. Locally higher amounts will be possible. An additional 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible through midweek as the monsoon pattern continues, weakening in the latter half of the week as Invest 96W moves away and a col shifts over the region. Models suggest that Yap Proper will remain in the drier east-southeasterly to easterly trade winds, but periods of scattered showers are expected in the earlier half of the week. To the east, satellite depicts patchy scattered showers near Chuuk this afternoon. Models keep Chuuk in a quieter doldrum-like pattern for much of the week with a col set up nearby, associated mainly with developing Invest 95W over eastern Micronesia. Chuuk may see slightly wetter conditions by the end of the week as a broad region of west to southwest winds looks to extend into the region. Benign marine conditions continue, with altimetry and Yap buoy data indicating combined seas between 3 and 5 feet across the region. Palau can expect most of its swell energy out of the southwest over the next few days, associated with the ongoing monsoon pattern. Chuuk may see sea heights start to increase by the end of the week, associated with an increase in northeast swell from developing Invest 95W. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas/East and West Micronesia/Tropical Update: Stanko Marianas: Ogle East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia/Tropical Systems: DeCou