094 FXUS62 KGSP 310620 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 120 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures rise back above normal through the week. A low pressure system could bring rain to the area for the weekend before dry and warm conditions return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 103 AM EST Wednesday: Most of the high clouds from earlier have dissipated, with a stratocu deck remaining over the immediate TN border as northwest flow remains in place. Moisture layer is very shallow and the lack of forcing should halt much in the way of snow showers overnight tonight. Otherwise, good radiational cooling conditions with clearing skies and light winds should allow overnight lows to drop 4-8 degrees below normal for most locations across the CWFA. Key Message #1: Elevated fire weather conditions across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this afternoon. Broad cyclonic flow aloft remains in place through the forecast period as a surface high sinks into the western Gulf and a encroaching cold front slides into the Midwest and OH Valley by the end of the period. Ahead of the front, a lee trough develops during the daytime period, leading to a wind shift from the southwest. Expect a slight uptick in afternoon highs in response, with dewpoints remaining in the teens across the CWFA (single digits in the highest elevations). In this case, relative humidities will approach 25% in locations outside of the mountains. Boundary layer mixing (top of the boundary: 850-825mb) will help to bring better wind gusts to the surface during peak heating (15-25mph) as well. The combination of low relative humidity, breezy conditions, and dry vegetation will produce elevated fire weather concerns across the CWFA during the afternoon hours, especially outside of the mountains where temperatures are warmer with afternoon highs rising to near-normal values or a few ticks below normal. In collaboration with the Peachtree City NWS and the Georgia Forestry Commission, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for 5 of the 6 (All counties except Rabun) northeast Georgia counties in our CWFA. In collaboration with the Raleigh NWS and the North Carolina Land Managers, an Increase Fire Danger Statement has been issued for counties east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment in western North Carolina. In collaboration with the Columbia NWS Office and South Carolina Land Managers, an Increased Fire Danger Statement will not be needed for the South Carolina Upstate. All Fire Danger Statements will be in effect from this afternoon through the early evening hours. Key Message #2: Dry and near-normal temperatures tonight, with an increase in wind gusts across the northern mountains. A potent shortwave trough over the Great Lakes region and northeastern CONUS will push the cold front towards the CWFA from the north by daybreak Thursday. Tight pressure gradient will result from the northwest as the 850mb flow increases to 30-35 kts, leading to an increase in wind gusts over the higher terrain, especially over the northern mountains and adjacent foothills. However, most gusts should remain below Advisory criteria at this time, but will continue to monitor closely. Can't rule out a few isolated snow showers across the northern mountains along the immediate TN border overnight tonight, especially with better 700mb-850mb frontogenesis developing over the southern Appalachians. The forcing from this would be able to squeeze the most out of the very shallow moisture layer with the combination of orographic enhancement. Otherwise, an increase in high clouds are expected across the rest of the CWFA, but the aforementioned front should remain north of the area through the end of the forecast period. With a slight increase in winds from the southwest and cloud cover, overnight lows will run a category or so warmer compared to the past few nights with values running at or a few ticks below-normal for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1225 AM EST Wednesday... Key Message #1: Dry Thursday and Friday with highs above normal. A weak, dry back door cold front drops south across the area Thursday and stalls to our south on Friday. Any light NW flow snow showers will taper off quickly Thursday morning. Winds will taper off through the day as well, but will remain windy across the mountains and breezy elsewhere until then. Winds will be lighter on Friday. Highs will be up to 5 degrees above normal with lows near to a little below normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Wednesday... Key Message #1: A southern stream low pressure system could bring rain to the region on Friday night through Saturday night. The guidance remains in agreement that a southern stream low pressure system will move over or south of the area Saturday. They also agree that thermal profiles will be warm enough for only liquid rain, even in the highest elevations. They continue to show run to run differences in timing and track of the low. This creates differences in PoP and QPF. There is general agreement that PoP and QPF will be higher across the Upstate and NE GA. The model blend continues to favor those locations with highest PoP Friday night into Saturday. The forecast follows these trends but all locations have at least some period of chance PoP and light QPF. Key Message #2: Dry with a warming trend Sunday into Tuesday. High pressure settles over the area Sunday and slowly moves east through Tuesday. This brings a return to dry conditions and temps rising to around 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as the previous high clouds have since dissipated across the terminals. SCT/BKN low VFR stratocu has develop over KAVL and should linger through the pre-dawn hours before diminishing. Light west to northwesterly winds are expected through tonight before backing to a southwesterly component around or a little after daybreak and remaining this way through the end of the period, with the exception of KAVL that keeps a northwesterly wind. Some low-end gusts can't be ruled out during peak heating at all TAF sites. Winds remain relatively elevated by this evening into tonight at 5-10 kts. A few high clouds will develop over the area by evening and linger into the overnight hours. Outlook: VFR conditions to persist through Friday. A storm system will move across the area late Friday through Saturday and bring the next best chance of precipitation and associated restrictions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Following collaboration with the Peachtree City NWS Office and the Georgia Forestry Commission, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for 5 of the 6 northeast Georgia counties (with the exception of Rabun) for this afternoon and early evening. Following collaboration with the Raleigh NWS Office and the North Carolina Land Managers, an Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued for counties east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment in western North Carolina for this afternoon and early evening. A dry airmass remains in place, leading to relative humidities dropping to 25% across locations outside of the mountains in the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon as well with gusts of 15-25 mph. With low Relative Humidity, breezy conditions, and dry fuels, elevated fire conditions are expected this afternoon. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RWH NEAR TERM...CAC SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...CAC FIRE WEATHER...CAC