191 FXUS62 KGSP 300558 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1258 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Winds diminish but much cooler conditions continue today. Near normal temperatures return mid to late week. A low pressure system could bring rain to the area for the weekend. Dry but warm conditions return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1246 AM EST Tuesday: Key Message #1: Gusty northwest winds continue across the mountains with below normal temperatures through today. Broad cyclonic flow aloft remains overhead through the period as the post-frontal regime becomes fully established with a surface high sinking south across the Central and Southern Plains and the cold front from Monday being well offshore. Continued northwest flow will help keep CAA ongoing in the CWFA and gusty winds as a tight pressure gradient takes time to relax, especially across the mountains. With the cold air settled in and ongoing wind gusts of 40-50 mph (up to 60 mph in the highest elevations across the northern mountains), expect wind chills to dip into the single digits and below zero in the higher elevations through at least daybreak. In this case, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for Avery County as much of the county hits -5 degrees or lower, while the forecast for other counties in the mountains are too small of an area of -5F or below to justify an expansion of the product. The Wind Advisory remains in place across the northern mountains and adjacent foothills and a High Wind Warning for Avery County as ongoing wind gusts support the product to continue through 12Z this morning. Northwest flow also producing cloud cover along the immediate TN border, but with a very shallow moisture layer, only a few flurries or light rime ice is expected over the next few hours. Mostly clear skies with elevated northwest winds (5-10 kts) outside of the mountains as boundary layers struggle to fully decouple in otherwise good radiational cooling conditions. With all that being said, overnight lows will be the coldest since mid-December with values 4-8 degrees below normal. Key Message #2: Elevated fire weather conditions possible this afternoon with below normal temperatures continuing tonight. Tight pressure gradient slowly relaxes throughout the daytime period, producing breezy northwest winds, especially across the mountains. With a very cool and dry airmass in place, dewpoints will remain in the teens and single digits through the forecast period across the CWFA. Diurnal trend in temperatures will allow afternoon highs to reach into the mid to upper 40s outside of the mountains. In this case, RH values will drop below 25% during peak heating, leading to elevated fire weather concerns. Stronger wind gusts will remain confined to the mountains as temperatures top out in the 20s (highest elevations) and 30s, which will keep RH values above the 25% threshold for fire weather concerns. Fuel moisture levels have dried out rather significantly behind the front, but from a meteorological standpoint, fire weather conditions will be limited. Otherwise, enjoy mostly sunny skies with temperatures remaining 5-10 degrees below normal during the daytime period. Good radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight, but a passing vort max may help to develop a deck of cirrus late in the evening into the first half of the overnight period. This shouldn't alter overnight lows too much unless coverage becomes more widespread and lasts longer than expected. Breezy winds continue in the highest elevations, which allows wind chill values to dip into the single digits, but nothing that warrants a Cold Weather Advisory. Overnight lows run 5-10 degrees below normal for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1215 AM EST Tuesday... Key Message #1: Dry and windy or breezy Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures trending back above normal for most. The center of surface high pressure remains well to our west while a clipper type low pressure system moves by to our north on Wednesday. The associated dry cold front drops south across the area on Thursday. The airmass remains very dry with critical RH values during the afternoon. A somewhat tight pressure gradient remains with windy conditions across the mountains and breezy elsewhere. Highs and lows will be near to slightly below normal. Although the cold front is dry, there will be some dew point recovery on Thursday finally ending the critical RH levels. Still, expect windy conditions to continue across the mountains and remain breezy elsewhere. Highs will be near to a little above normal with lows near to a little below normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 AM EST Tuesday... Key Message #1: Dry with above normal temperatures Friday. The cold front will stall south of the area on Friday. Conditions will remain dry with lighter winds and highs around 5 degrees above normal. Key Message #2: A southern stream low pressure system could bring rain to the region on Friday night and Saturday. The guidance remains in agreement that a southern stream low pressure system will move near or south of the area Saturday. They also agree that thermal profiles will be warm enough for only liquid rain. They continue to show run to run differences in timing and amount of precip. The model blend remains the way to go which shows good precip chances and some much needed rainfall. Key Message 3: Dry with a warming trend Sunday into Monday. High pressure settles over the area Sunday into Monday. This brings a return to dry conditions and temps rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all terminals. Mostly clear skies expected through today, with continued northwesterly winds, with KAND maintaining a more westerly component. Gusts of 20-30 kts will continue at KAVL through the morning and afternoon hours before gradually subsiding by this evening, with lingering low-end gusts through the end of the forecast period. Can't rule out a few low-end gusts at the rest of TAF sites during peak heating. A deck of high clouds are expected to move across the area later in the evening into the first half of the overnight period. Otherwise, light northwest winds continue through tonight. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions linger through Friday. A storm system will move across the area Friday night into Saturday and bring the next best chance for precipitation and associated restrictions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Following collaboration with the Peachtree City NWS Office and the Georgia Forestry Commission, we have issued a Red Flag Warning for all six of our counties in northeast Georgia, for this afternoon. Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop as low as 20%, with some isolated locations even falling into the teens. Winds may gust to 20-25mph for much of the day. Land managers have expressed concern that excessively dry fuels and another day of critical relative humidity will coincide to produce a favorable fire environment. So, despite forecast winds not quite reaching strict Red Flag conditions, criteria have been waived in support of land manager activities. Afternoon RH values are likely to fall below 25% again on Wednesday. Winds will be lighter but still breezy. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed, especially for NE GA. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Fire Weather Watch from noon EST today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ033. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ033. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ049-050-501- 503-505. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RWH NEAR TERM...CAC SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...CAC FIRE WEATHER...