592 FXUS63 KGRR 281946 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 246 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow sliding through this afternoon into tonight - Potential for a light wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday - Warmer with periods of rain mid week into next weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Accumulating snow sliding through this afternoon into tonight Winter wants to hang on as we flip the calendar from February into March. Snow is spreading our direction from upstream in Wisconsin and we should see accumulating snow this evening. The bulk of the snow should fall across the area between 400pm this afternoon and 400am early Sunday morning. The snow is occurring within an area for frontogenesis aloft between 850mb and 700mb. The models have zeroed in on the I-96 corridor and the next row of counties south of that as the area that should see the higher accumulations. So, Muskegon, Holland, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Allegan, Hastings, Eaton Rapids and Mason are some of the locations that should be in the heavier band. At this point we are thinking 1-3 inch accumulations will be the norm in this zone with an isolated 4 inch amount possible is the banding remains steady state as it moves through. Heaviest snow rates will occur this evening. To the north and south of the heaviest swath, for areas like Central Lower Michigan and down towards I-94, we are looking at trace amounts to around 1 inch of new snow. No headlines for this event as the totals don't meet criteria and the snow is falling in off peak travel times...after dark and on a weekend. Slippery travel can certainly be expected though this evening. The snow should have moved east of the area by daybreak on Sunday. - Potential for a light wintry mix Monday night into Tuesday night The pattern changes as we head into the latter portions of the work week with warmer air and periods of rain. Ahead of this warmth though as the cooler air near the surface hangs on we may see some brief periods of freezing rain from Monday night into Tuesday night. This does not look to be heavy and it is questionable whether or not it occurs at all. Tuesday during the day we look warmer where the precipitation type would be mainly rain. Something to watch at this point, but again this is a low confidence forecast somewhat based on the fact that the warm front to our south is positioned differently by the models. Bottom line, small possibilities for some light freezing rain Monday night and again Tuesday night. - Warmer with periods of rain mid week into next weekend For those looking for a taste of spring it appears the later half of the work week and into next weekend may speak to you. We warm up with high temperatures trending from the 40s into the 50s. We could even be looking at some lower 60s next weekend into early next week. As with most surges in warm air in March we are looking at periods of rain. There is the potential for 1 inch or more of rain towards I-94 as moisture surges in from the south. A bit early to nail down placement and amounts, but the trends point towards Southern Lower Michigan as the location for the heaviest rain for now. Plenty of time to watch trends on locations and amounts of heaviest rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Snow moves in this evening between 21Z-00Z. Most areas will see an inch or less but a narrow band of 2 inches plus is possible around the TAF sites. Currently looking into Minnesota and portions of southwest Wisconsin visibilities in the band are dropping down to a half mile. Therefore introduced these visibilities along with IFR ceilings into the TEMPO group. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are possible within the band. Most snowfall is expected to taper off around 6Z with conditions improving the VFR overnight into Sunday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...RAH