975 

FXUS63 KGRB 282358

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

558 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Below normal temps this weekend, then a slow but steady warming

  trend for next week as a more spring-like pattern sets up, 

  resulting in at least a couple chances for rain or snow.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Today's Snow Chances...Been closely monitoring the progression of an 

f-gen snow band as its tracked into WI early this afternoon. Radar, 

satellite, and hi-res model trends continue to agree in lowering the 

potential for the snow to reach the southern portions of the 

forecast area late this afternoon/early this evening and remain 

across southern WI. The snow/saturation is struggling to lift north 

and overcome dry air advecting from the north. As a result, have 

lowered PoPs and snowfall amounts significantly from the previous 

forecast, keeping snowfall accumulations up to 1 inch mainly south 

of a WI Rapids to Appleton to Manitowoc line. To compare, NBM 

probabilities for 2+" were 20-40% from WI Rapids to Oshkosh with 

the previous forecast and are now 0-15%. But, given the nature of 

f-gen snow bands (sharp gradients in amounts, subtle shifts in 

track), it is very possible the forecast area may not see any 

snowfall accumulations, or any snow will stay confined to the 

southern tier of counties in the forecast area. The likelihood of 

the opposite occurring (the band shifting much further north) is 

very low given the amount of dry air to the north and models not 

indicating this outcome anymore. Snow chances will come to an end 

this evening as the f-gen weakens and high pressure builds in 

further from the north. There are still some indications of a 

lake-effect snow band developing over far eastern WI this evening 

as surface winds turn NNE; however, 850mb winds will remain from 

the N or NNW, which should keep any snow band just offshore of the

forecast area.



Additional Rain/Snow Chances Next Week...As the flow turns zonal, 

there will be periodic chances for precip through the week. First 

system arrives Monday night into Tuesday as a wintry mix, with the 

potential for light snowfall accumulations (NBM probs of 1+" up to 

25%). Another system is forecast to arrive sometime between the 

middle of next week and late next week. Timing and placement details 

are very uncertain at this time, but with temperatures moderating, 

mainly rain is anticipated, but a little snow may mix in over the 

north at times, especially at night.



Temperatures...Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend 

with highs mainly in the 20s. Some wind chills in the single digits 

above and below zero are expected tonight and Sunday night. 

Temperatures will gradually rise throughout next week due to the 

pattern change, with high temperatures warming into the 40s most 

days, and perhaps into the 50s for some spots late next week. The 

warmer temps, along with the rain, will lead to a shrinking 

snowpack, with most/all of the snow likely melting across central 

and eastern WI. North-central WI has a foot or two of snow on the 

ground, so that will be slower to melt. Some minor hydro issues 

could arise if/where the largest snowpack exists, but hopefully this 

pattern will allow for a gradual melt. The ice jam threat will also 

increase for those rivers that are still frozen.



&&



.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 557 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



After a brief brush with light snow late this afternoon in our 

far southern areas from Wautoma to Oshkosh, main area of snow has 

now shifted farther south. Also, no real sign of any lake effect 

forming off Lake Michigan near MTW. 



All this adds up to removing any additional mention of snow for 

MTW this evening. Thus, looking at a VFR forecast at all TAF sites 

with mid clouds shifting through rest of tonight into early Sunday,

before partial clearing occurs from west to east on Sunday. Winds

will be light tonight into Sunday morning, shifting from the 

northwest to north-northeast. Winds become light and variable Sunday

afternoon into Sunday evening.



Looking ahead, VFR continues Sunday night and Monday with next 

chance for precipitation not occurring until late Monday night and

Tuesday.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Kruk

AVIATION.......JLA