677 

FXUS63 KGRB 282024

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A band of snow to graze across the southern portion of the

  forecast area through this evening. Snow accumulations to remain

  south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Appleton to Manitowoc line with

  up to 1 inch expected in these areas.



- Below normal temps this weekend, then a slow but steady warming

  trend for next week as a more spring-like pattern sets up, 

  resulting in at least a couple chances for rain or snow.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Today's Snow Chances...Been closely monitoring the progression of an 

f-gen snow band as its tracked into WI early this afternoon. Radar, 

satellite, and hi-res model trends continue to agree in lowering the 

potential for the snow to reach the southern portions of the 

forecast area late this afternoon/early this evening and remain 

across southern WI. The snow/saturation is struggling to lift north 

and overcome dry air advecting from the north. As a result, have 

lowered PoPs and snowfall amounts significantly from the previous 

forecast, keeping snowfall accumulations up to 1 inch mainly south 

of a WI Rapids to Appleton to Manitowoc line. To compare, NBM 

probabilities for 2+" were 20-40% from WI Rapids to Oshkosh with 

the previous forecast and are now 0-15%. But, given the nature of 

f-gen snow bands (sharp gradients in amounts, subtle shifts in 

track), it is very possible the forecast area may not see any 

snowfall accumulations, or any snow will stay confined to the 

southern tier of counties in the forecast area. The likelihood of 

the opposite occurring (the band shifting much further north) is 

very low given the amount of dry air to the north and models not 

indicating this outcome anymore. Snow chances will come to an end 

this evening as the f-gen weakens and high pressure builds in 

further from the north. There are still some indications of a 

lake-effect snow band developing over far eastern WI this evening 

as surface winds turn NNE; however, 850mb winds will remain from 

the N or NNW, which should keep any snow band just offshore of the

forecast area.



Additional Rain/Snow Chances Next Week...As the flow turns zonal, 

there will be periodic chances for precip through the week. First 

system arrives Monday night into Tuesday as a wintry mix, with the 

potential for light snowfall accumulations (NBM probs of 1+" up to 

25%). Another system is forecast to arrive sometime between the 

middle of next week and late next week. Timing and placement details 

are very uncertain at this time, but with temperatures moderating, 

mainly rain is anticipated, but a little snow may mix in over the 

north at times, especially at night.



Temperatures...Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend 

with highs mainly in the 20s. Some wind chills in the single digits 

above and below zero are expected tonight and Sunday night. 

Temperatures will gradually rise throughout next week due to the 

pattern change, with high temperatures warming into the 40s most 

days, and perhaps into the 50s for some spots late next week. The 

warmer temps, along with the rain, will lead to a shrinking 

snowpack, with most/all of the snow likely melting across central 

and eastern WI. North-central WI has a foot or two of snow on the 

ground, so that will be slower to melt. Some minor hydro issues 

could arise if/where the largest snowpack exists, but hopefully this 

pattern will allow for a gradual melt. The ice jam threat will also 

increase for those rivers that are still frozen.



&&



.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites

through Sunday. Although mid-level clouds are expected through

late this evening, cigs may lower to near MVFR for a period late 

this afternoon through late this evening, mainly at the ATW/MTW 

TAF sites due to the potential for light snow to lift over these

sites. However, the potential in these MVFR cigs occurring is 

lowering due to trends indicating the snow/moisture is struggling

to overcome the dry air further to the north. Have removed the 

snow from the CWA/AUW/GRB TAF sites, removed the MVFR cigs/vsbys

from the ATW TAF, and modified the MTW TAF with a PROB30 for MVFR

cigs/vsbys. Clouds will gradually decrease towards Sunday morning,

with good flying conditions expected for the remainder of Sunday.



Winds will generally remain under 10 kts through the TAF period, 

shifting from N/NNW this afternoon to N/NNE overnight. Winds

become light and variable on Sunday.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Kruk

AVIATION.......Kruk