006 

FXUS63 KGLD 292156

AFDGLD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

356 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Thunderstorm chances return later Tuesday afternoon into the

  evening. Damaging winds will be possible, especially across 

  northwest KS into southwest NE. 



- A mainly dry period is expected Thursday and Friday before

  another chance for storms Saturday. 



- It will be warm through the entire week into next weekend. The

  warmest day appears to be Friday, when highs nearing 100 will

  be possible.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 1252 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026



A cold front will stall tonight across northwest KS into central

Nebraska. A somewhat cooler and drier air-mass will be located 

across western NE into northwest KS and eastern CO. East of the 

front a moist and warm air-mass will remain in place along with 

breezy south to southwest winds. Conditions will remain dry

across the tri-state area through Tuesday morning, with any

convection along the front remaining to our northeast across

Nebraska. 



During the day Tuesday, surface low pressure will deepen across

eastern CO in response to a shortwave trough approaching the 

area from the west. The aforementioned stalled front will begin

to lift back to the north-northwest as the low deepens. By late

in the afternoon this front will have lifted well north into 

western Nebraska. South winds will return moisture/humidity to 

all of the area, with surface dew points generally in the lower 

60s by late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the 

increase in moisture will lead to at least a moderately unstable

atmosphere. Strong shear will be in place across far northwest 

KS much of eastern CO into NE. As large scale ascent overspreads

the area late in the afternoon from the approaching wave, a 

cluster of thunderstorms should initiate on the nose of steep 

0-3km low-level lapse rates across west central KS. These will 

quickly track northeastward across the northwest KS counties 

into NE during the early to mid-evening hours. Strong and potentially

damaging winds appears to be the main severe weather threat. A 

few instances of hail will also be possible. These should be out

of the area by later Tuesday night



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Scattered convection looks to remain possible Wednesday. Then as

upper level ridging noses northward Thursday into Friday, a lull

in convection appears to occur. By Saturday a strong shortwave 

is slated to cross the Northern Plains. Our area will be on the 

southern flank of the stronger forcing, but there will be some 

chance for storms as a cold front settles southward through the 

area. Upper level ridging then begins to build northward Sunday 

into the first of next week. It will be quite warm through the 

period, with the hottest day slated to be Friday, when highs in 

the upper 90s to near 100 are expected.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026



VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for

KGLD and KMCK. Winds are forecast to be shifty through most of

the period, and gusts at least 15-20 kts are expected through 

the period. Afternoon showers and storms are also possible for

the next few days.



&&



.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

CO...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...LBF (Taylor)

LONG TERM...LBF (Taylor)

AVIATION...CA