676 FXUS63 KGLD 281950 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 150 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, dry and breezy through the beginning of the work week. - Isolated storm chances Monday in eastern areas, with more scattered storms in the entire area Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe chances will be low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Fairly stagnant upper pattern will continue with the main features being a ridge over the Mississippi River Valley and a trough over the Great Basin. This will result in southwest flow over the Central Plains. A cut off low over Montana today and tomorrow will lift into Canada by Tuesday, weakening the flow over the plains. Embedded impulses in the southwest flow will result in scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances. Convection initiates on various surface boundaries either near or south of the area, including an old frontal boundary, the dry line and lee trough. CAMs suggest that the convection on Monday will probably stay just east of the area, but appears to be better chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with the storms moving out of southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. The environment will be weakly to moderately unstable each day, highest values in eastern areas. Deep layer shear will be strongest on Monday, around 40 kts, but weakens Tuesday and Wednesday with the diminished winds aloft. If storms can develop in the area on Monday then may see a severe threat in far eastern areas (Norton and Graham counties in northwest Kansas) where highest instability will reside. Those threats would be large hail and damaging winds if they were to develop. While coverage may be somewhat higher Tuesday and Wednesday, the weakening shear will probably result in pulse updrafts which may briefly reach low end severe criteria for hail but perhaps present a greater wind threat given favorable DCAPE in the hot and relatively dry environment. Temperatures through the period will continue above normal with highs mostly in the 90s with a few spots reaching triple digits. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Hot, dry, and windy weather persist through the long term forecast period. Wednesday, our region is forecast to be in a southwest upper- level flow with a jet streak overhead. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the county warning area (CWA). Expect a windy Wednesday for our Colorado counties with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible. A shortwave passage will bring a slight chance of precipitation Wednesday afternoon, but Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are only around 15% for the northeast CWA. Instability is weak, so any storms that form will likely be isolated and sub-severe with small hail and strong winds as the primary hazards. Thursday through Saturday, conditions continue to be hot, dry, and windy with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s. Wind gusts of 20 to 45 mph are expected, with the strongest winds forecast across the western CWA. While the meteorological conditions are conducive for fire weather, how receptive fuels will be is the big question. Wednesday through Saturday, relative humidity (RH) values are forecast to fall into the teens across the western CWA accompanied by strong afternoon winds. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are forecast in the high to extreme category. However, given the recent substantial rainfall, fuels may remain unreceptive, which could mitigate the overall fire weather threat despite the hot, dry, and windy conditions. We will have to watch how much fuels dry out over the weekend to better determine fire weather potential for next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Light winds this afternoon will increase tonight from the south to southwest, gusting up to 30 kts at times. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024