226 FXUS63 KGLD 281814 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1114 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A wintry mix and freezing fog is forecast to develop gradually through the day Sunday and into Monday night favoring locations along and east of Highway 83. A 20-30% chance of at least a glaze of ice is forecast through this time frame. - Most of next week, there are chances for precipitation across the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1109 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 A backdoor cold front is currently moving into north central Kansas, which appears to be a little quicker that some guidance suggested so have trended the wind forecast to a combo of the HRRR and GFS which both has the quicker front movement. Until then breezy winds from the northwest are forecast to continue for the majority of the area leading to periods of briefly critical fire weather for the area. Winds are forecast to wane with the frontal passage before increasing again during the evening hours with sustained winds around 15 mph. Other than the winds, another mild late February day remains in tact with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to occur leading to an increase in cloud cover. Drizzle and/or freezing drizzle is forecast to occur favoring eastern portions back as far as Highway 83 of the forecast area starting as early as 12pm central time Sunday. RAP and NAM cross sections do show periods of -1 to -2 microbars of lift at the surface which has led to the introduction of the wording for a few hours in the early afternoon. If the moisture advection is a little slower then the threat may be delayed a few hours. Sunday night into Monday morning additional lift in the 700-500mb level is forecast to move off of the Rockies in the form of a shortwave increasing lift in that time frame. This may lead to a period of freezing rain or sleet to occur favoring Norton and Graham counties. The RAP shows a bit deeper of a dry layer and not as much mid level moisture which would suggest more of a freezing fog potential. Currently there is quite bit of discrepancy with the coverage of the fog potential and if it would be dense fog so am opting to leave it out of the forecast for now as the wintry mix looks to be the more impactful threat. Confidence for at least a glaze of ice across eastern portions of the area is 20-30% and 10-20% for accumulating (0.01 inches or more). Monday, troughing across the western Conus is forecast to return slowly ending any wintry mix potential by late morning into Monday afternoon. Moisture advection is forecast to continue as well as a surface low begins to develop. Light rain may continue across the east. Most of the area looks to remain dry in the dry slot of the developing low. Highs for the day are forecast to be in the low 50s across the east to the upper 60s across the west. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1248 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 Monday night will see the environment become primed for Tuesday's low and cold front. The low level persistent high over the eastern CONUS will promote efficient moisture advection into the Plains. In the mid layers, southwesterly flow still looks to cause a dry layer. This leads to a fairly shallow layer of moist air at the surface, likely leading to drizzle. NBM has been trying to keep temperatures across the area falling to below freezing by Tuesday morning. However, with the southerly moisture advection, which looks to keep dew points above freezing for most of the area, temperatures will likely remain above freezing. For locations that do drop below freezing for more than ~30 minutes, slick conditions should be expected as ice will start forming. Tuesday, the the pattern changes as a low pushes through the western CONUS and over the High Plains. The surface low timing is pretty uncertain at this point as the ECMWF has it moving in around 3Z Tuesday, but the GFS and CMC-NH have it around 9-12Z Tuesday morning. The surface front will occur first throughout the column, leaving the mid layers dry. Behind the front, we can expect winds Tuesday to be gusting around 20-30 kts. The rest of the column looks to saturate in the afternoon Tuesday, as the 500 mb low also enters. This will be the start of our better precipitation chances. However, the NBM shows a 50% chance of precipitation during the late morning. This is likely a combination of the potential for drizzle throughout the day if the inversion remains intact, the FROPA throughout the column occurs at the same time, or variance in ensemble member timing. PoPs are likely too high for Tuesday 12-21Z. Overnight Tuesday currently looks like the to be the best chance of precipitation from the first low. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing, but there is a 30% chance sub- freezing temperatures occur. Surface and near surface temperatures will have a major impact on the P-type. As it stand, rain looks to dominate with occasional snow mixing in. There are no clear cut signs of a warm nose during our potential freezing times, minimizing the potential for freezing rain or sleet. Precipitation should be waning by sunrise Wednesday, exiting to the east. Come Thursday, we're looking at a system that's very similar to the Tuesday/Wednesday system. The main difference is the 850 mb low looks to be over the Northern Plains which leads to higher confidence we'll stay above freezing. Temperatures throughout the long term are chaotic. Low temperatures look to remain around or above freezing through Thursday morning. Friday morning, we'll likely be seeing CAA over the area, causing temperatures to drop into the low 20s. Highs will be on a warming trend through Thursday, peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s, then cooling and peaking around 50 for Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 944 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move through during this afternoon into the evening shifting winds to the northeast. Until then forecast soundings suggest that wind gusts of 20-25 knots should occur at or shortly after TAF issuance before losing that potential with the front. Mid to upper level cloud cover is forecast to increase through the night. Some guidance suggests that period of fog/stratus may be possible overnight for GLD but those were tied to a slower front passage so confidence is less than 5% in that. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Trigg