833 FXUS63 KGLD 310723 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1223 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the week. Hazardous weather is presently not anticipated through next weekend. - Dry conditions will likely persist through the weekend, but there are some slim chances for light precipitation starting Thursday evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1219 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025 Today, we'll start off with a ridge pushing in from the TX/OK panhandle region, letting us start off with south southwesterly flow in the low levels. This will help temperatures along and south of U.S. 24 to warm up pretty well, likely into the mid 60s. However, late this morning, a weak mid level shortwave trough will push an equally weak cold front through the area. With the front, we can expect a wind shift to be coming from the northwest and some gusts around 20-25 kts across the area. There's a 50/50 chance this front will notably impact the high temperatures today since it is so weak. The current NDFD grids reflect the warmer option in which the front does not impact temperatures. If the front does stunt temperatures, subtract about 3-5 degrees off the high temperatures for places north of U.S. 24. Fire weather concerns today remain minimal. RH values will drop into the mid to upper teens southwest of a line from Russell Springs, KS to Idalia, CO. However, wind gusts are expected to remain below 20 kts in this area. There is a 40% chance isolated instances of critical conditions are hit, but prolonged critical conditions are very unlikely. Overnight tonight, a shortwave ridge is expected to push into the area. This could lead to a backdoor cold front impacting the northeastern 1/5 of the CWA. Most dramatic impact from this would be some patchy freezing fog and stratus. If freezing fog does form, there's a 5-10% chance it'll be around long enough to lead to some slick surfaces. Most likely impacts would be to aviation or keeping the low temperatures in the mid 20s instead of the low 20s. The rest of the CWA that will not be impacted by the front will likely see partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 20s. Tomorrow, we'll see another trough form a low-level low over the TX/OK panhandles as the trough axis moves over the CWA in the afternoon/evening. This will lead to some southerly WAA during the day, allowing temperatures to climb to around 60 for most of the area. The NBM is heavily favoring solutions that have stratus or fog lingering over the eastern CWA, keeping temperatures capped in the mid 50s. These warm temperatures will allow RH values to drop into the low 20s in a similar area as Wednesday. There will be two chances at wind gusts around 20-25 kts, which would barely support critical fire weather conditions. The first will be in the late morning in the southeastern CWA. As the low over the panhandles moves on east, it'll create an 850 mb LLJ of around 20-30 kts. If surface temperatures warm quickly, the lingering nocturnal inversion will erode and gusts around 25 kts will occur. If the inversion remains in place or the LLJ sets up outside of our CWA, gusts will not occur. The second chance at the gusts will be in the late afternoon as the trough axis and surface cold front move through the area. Trailing the cold front, 850 mb winds may be around the 20-25 kts range. These winds would impact eastern Colorado, and are dependent on if the flow behind the cold front can become organized. Guidance is mixed in regards to 850 mb flow behind the front, most showing a disorganized flow around 10-15 kts. Due to the mixed guidance and how borderline conditions would be if they did occur, a fire weather product is not expected. Thursday evening and night, we'll see the rest of the trough push through the area as lows cool into the upper 20s to low 30s. This will give us northerly winds throughout the night and could keep the 500 mb convergence band over the CWA. With the convergence band, expect vorticity. There also appears to be a 70% chance the mid and upper levels will be mostly saturated, giving us cloud cover and potentially some light precipitation. Confidence in any precipitation occurring during this timeframe is less than 10% as there is a ~100 mb dry layer near the surface. However, if that dry layer is overcome, a trace of precipitation may occur. Here's the bad news; if precipitation occurs early Friday morning, it could be a wintry mix due to the warm layer near the surface. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025 The long-term is shaping up to be a pretty active time. Guidance is showing a trough to ridge and returning trough cycle about every 48 hours. The first trough looks to impact the CWA Friday afternoon. 850 mb looks to remain mostly dry during the long-term, so precipitation is not likely. There is a decent signal that we will see some gusty winds, mainly around 20-30 kts, during this time. Looking at the NBM 25-75 spread, there is generally a 5-10 degree spread in highs and a 3-8 degrees spread in lows. Highs will generally range in the 50s to mid 60s with the northeastern CWA being the coolest. Sunday has the lowest spread and warmest temperatures, climbing into the upper 60s for the souther CWA. Lows will generally be in the mid 20s to low 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 956 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period for both KGLD and KMCK. Winds this morning will favor west-southwesterly and KGLD may see some gusts up to 20 kts before a weak cold front moves through. Northwesterly winds will follow the front, likely producing gusts around 20-25 kts for both sites. Around sunset, winds weaken and become variable. Around 9-12Z Thursday morning, KMCK may see some stratus and fog impact flight categories. More information is expected in the next TAF cycle. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...CA