076 FXUS65 KGJT 290606 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1206 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue throughout the week. - Red Flag Warnings are in effect from noon to 9PM Monday, with Fire Weather Watches in effect from noon to 9PM Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 The overall longwave pattern doesn't change much through the coming week, with troughing dominant over the west and ridging to the east. This will keep eastern Utah and western Colorado under persistent, dry, southwesterly flow. In turn, this means gusty southwesterly surface winds each afternoon and low daytime humidities, resulting in daily critical fire weather conditions. Passing shortwaves in the longwave trough will lead to periods of stronger surface winds. The next such day appears to be Tuesday, where widespread gusts of 30-40 mph are expected, and gusts to 45 mph or greater possible, especially across the higher terrain. These conditions have the potential to lead to extreme fire behavior, particularly for the several large, ongoing wildfires. In between the passing shortwaves, winds will relax somewhat, but gusts of 20-30 mph will still be possible each afternoon. Red Flag Warnings have been issued from noon to 9PM Monday for most of the lower elevations of eastern Utah and western Colorado. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Tuesday from noon to 9PM for all Colorado Fire Weather Zones except 291 and 295, and for all Utah Fire Weather Zones except 485. A small amount of upper level moisture tries to sneak in across northeast Utah with each passing wave, but is most likely to result in virga showers or a dry thunderstorm or two, producing mainly gusty and erratic winds. Temperatures remain near-normal through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 A frontal boundary will continue to result in gusty northwest winds north of I-70 through the early morning hours, mainly including KRIL and KCNY with gusty south-southwest winds at KMTJ. Overall for remaining TAF sites, winds should lessen through the overnight. Skies will remain mostly clear and VFR conditions will prevail. However, smoke from wildfires across the area will lead to reduced visibility and lowered ceilings for terminals under the plume. This will include KMTJ and KGJT, with the potential for smoke to reach as far as KHDN, KASE, KRIL, and KEGE. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible in the smoke, with the potential to drop into LIFR where smoke is thickest. Winds will become breezy after 16Z Monday with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range for most terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Winds are expected to diminish somewhat Monday as the core of strongest winds shifts to the northeast. That said, winds are still expected to be elevated, with gusts of 25-35 mph likely and up to 45 mph possible over the higher terrain. Daytime mixing will turn terrain driven surface winds southwesterly once more. Dry surface air remains in place, keeping critical fire weather conditions in place. As a result, Red Flag Warnings have been issued from noon to 9PM MDT for most of eastern Utah and western Colorado. A wave is expected to approach the region on Tuesday, tightening up the surface pressure gradient yet again. This will result in widespread southwesterly gusts of 30-40 mph. With daytime minimum humidity values in the low teens to single digits, we are once again looking at widespread critical fire weather conditions. The core of strongest winds is currently forecasted for area that already have ongoing large wildfires, including the Babylon, Ferris, Gold Mountain, and Snyder Fires. As a result, elevated to extreme fire behavior will be possible on these fires Tuesday. Fire Weather Watches are in effect from noon to 9PM. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ200-202- 203-207-290-292>294. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for COZ200>203-205-207-290-292>294. UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for UTZ487-490- 491. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for UTZ486-487-490-491. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...BGB/TGJT