996 FXUS65 KGJT 310505 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1005 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions persist through Wednesday with above normal temperatures. - Valley rain and mountain snow showers return on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 A ridge axis anchored over the Great Basin is providing us with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies this afternoon with a few high clouds across the Four Corners, but otherwise clear skies. Temperatures are warmer today by about 5 degrees so highs will average out today around 10 degrees above normal. This warm air advection continues through Wednesday as the ridge axis slides eastward and southwest flow brings moisture into the Desert Southwest ahead of the next low pressure trough. We should begin to see this result in increasing high cloud cover throughout the day on Wednesday, with clouds lowering Wednesday night as showers increase across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 A warm and moist airmass will engulf the Western Slope on Thursday, providing widespread showers. This tropical moisture will be unseasonably warm, resulting in valley rain and wintery mix for mid elevations. Without a stark cold front, snow levels are expected to fluctuate throughout the day, climbing above 9500' for our southern mountain zones by peak heating. At best, 700mb temperatures within the plume are limited to 0 deg C to 3 below. In addition, the open wave trailing this moisture surge becomes absorbed within the ridge of high pressure as the system moves inland. Thus, there is little dynamic support while the shortwave ripples across the area. Snow efficiency improves overnight thanks to the diurnal dip in temperatures, so long as sufficient moisture lingers. A ridge of high pressure is expected to reestablish overhead by Friday, so dry air will begin to erode through available moisture. Light snow may favor higher terrain along the Divide throughout the day, however the main moisture source will be tapped dry for lower terrain west of the Divide. Southwest winds persist over the weekend, with minimal moisture transport. Unseasonably warm temperatures will also stick around through the weekend, with highs hovering around 15 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, looking upstream, a series of atmospheric rivers are progged to make landfall across the PacNW Saturday and Sunday. However, the southern extent and strength of Sunday's low (or systems shortly thereafter) could support the next chance of moisture moving across the Interior West early to mid next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1005 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 Expect VFR conditions and generally light terrain driven winds with high clouds increasing through the period. KHDN may have stronger easterly drainage winds overnight into the morning hours. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...ERW AVIATION...TGJT