533 FXUS63 KGID 010543 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunday-Monday carry still-highly-uncertain/low forecast confidence chances for wintry precip. On Sunday, there MIGHT be a mix of snow/sleet primarily in the southeast quadrant of our forecast area (CWA). Then Monday morning, there MIGHT be a chance for light freezing drizzle mainly within the southeast half of our CWA. Forecast confidence and/or expected impacts are still too low to justify any formal Advisories at this time. - Tuesday could bring additional drizzle and/or rain showers, but with less of a threat for any freezing precip. - Our forecast has now largely "dried out" for Wed-Thurs, as we reside "in between" upper level systems. - Friday-Saturday brings a return of more low-confidence precip chances. These should mainly be in the form of rain...and POSSIBLY some thunderstorms (far from a "sure thing"). - As for cumulative precip AMOUNTS through the next 7 days, unfortunately we have seen a slight decreasing trend, with official WPC QPF now less than 0.25" for roughly the NW half of our CWA...and no more than 0.25-0.50" for roughly our SE half. - Temperature-wise: Sunday is clearly the coldest day of the next week (highs mainly 30), with highs in the 40s-50s returning Mon-Tues...then more widespread 50s-60s Wed-Sat (high temps actually trended up several degrees Wed-Fri). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - In terms of 7-day forecast changes since our previous (early- AM) issuance, they are mainly highlighted by: 1) precip chances (PoPs) have been lowered enough for most of Wednesday-Thursday that our official forecast is now largely dry. 2) Due in part to #1, high temps have trended up several degrees for Wed-Thurs, but have also come up for Friday as well. - Unfortunately, what has NOT changed is considerable/above- average FORECAST UNCERTAINY, both in the: 1) Shorter term: Both Sunday-Monday could feature pesky rounds of light wintry precip...OR nothing much at all). 2) Longer term: Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show widely varying solutions for Friday-Saturday, mainly due to big timing/placement differences in our next larger-scale upper trough (thus why PoPs are currently at no higher than 50% during this time). Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday and is dry Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but conversely offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to sort out here! -- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Sat. March 7): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM: Just to get this out there right off the top, it appears high temps this afternoon are going to end up a good 5-10+ degrees cooler than our initial early-AM forecast. Despite wall-to-wall sunshine, the steady northeasterly breezes and weak low- level cold air advection are clearly "winning out". As a result, highs will only reach (at best) the upper 40s in our north...to low- mid 50s central...to mainly upper 50s-low 60s in our south- southwest (except warmest mid 60s mainly within Furnas/Rooks/Osborne counties). Speaking of these north-northeasterly breezes, if anything they are slightly stronger than expected, with sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH/gusts 15-20 MPH (localized higher). In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data confirms broad northwesterly flow over our local Central Plains region, as we remain well southwest of a shortwave trough passing through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: High confidence that it stays dry, with only increasing (and mainly high level) clouds out ahead of the next low-amplitude wave approaching from the west. There could be some lower stratus cloud that invade mainly our northern counties between midnight-sunrise, but this of lower probability than the more- certain high cloud increase. At the surface, breezes will remain steady out of the east-northeast (sustained 10-15 MPH with some gusts up to around 20 MPH). As for low temps, the steady breezes/increasing clouds ensure that readings will not "tank", but due in part to today ending up cooler-than-forecast, certainly did not want to warm up lows much. As a result, kept them fairly close to previous forecast, with mainly low 20s Nebraska and mid-upper 20s Kansas (along with Furnas County area). - SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (possible round of snow/sleet?): Even at we get closer to "zero hour", Sunday's forecast honestly remains a legitimate "pain". For example, while the latest ECMWF has trended all but dry, various higher-res models (HRRR/NAMNest) and even the recent 18Z NAM are fairly suggestive that especially the afternoon hours will feature a rapid development of a varied mix of showery precip types over especially the southeast quadrant of our CWA (those areas mainly near/east of Hwy 281 and near/south of I-80). Given that forecast soundings hover near the 0C line in the low-mid levels, this showery precip (should it develop) could be anything from snow, to sleet, to perhaps even a little freezing rain or "plain rain" (especially in KS where surface temps should be warmest). Although things certainly have the potential to still trend worse, our latest forecast officially "downplays" things a bit, with PoPs/Chances no higher than 20-40%, and any snow/sleet accumulation under one-half inch. Due to this current "low end" expectation in terms of wintry precip likelihood and amounts/impacts, we cannot justify a proactive Winter Weather Advisory at this time (but this bears watching). On top of everything, and although not reflected in our official forecast or the latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook, there could even be a few rumbles of thunder given up to a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability/CAPE. As for daytime high temps, they were not changed much...still calling for mainly mid 30s east to upper 30s-low 40s west. For around sunset and beyond, any possible MEASURABLE wintry mix should have vacated our CWA to the east. However, especially the latest NAM (which is often over-agressiveness with low level saturation) suggests that especially our far eastern zones could see a low chance for freezing drizzle. Low temps changed little...mainly low-mid 20s. - MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT (possibly freezing drizzle issues?): Unfortunately, uncertainty in the likelihood/magnitude of any wintry precip continues. However, it is starting to look more likely that the vast majority of any precipitation that does occur will be in the form of fin-droplet DRIZZLE or FREEZING DRIZZLE (as opposed to steadier heavier showers). Any freezing drizzle threat would mainly occur right away in the morning, before surface temps warm enough to change any possible light icing over to "plain"/non-freezing drizzle by late morning. Getting into the very late night (post-midnight) hours, some models (including ECMWF) suggest that an area of showers/weak thunderstorms could flare up very near our far southeastern CWA, but better chances currently appear to focus slightly east, and this is not in our official forecast. Temp-wise, highs similar to previous (low 40s east to upper 40s west), with Mon night lows a bit warmer than the previous few nights (mainly upper 20s-mid 30s). - TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT (more, mainly rain chances): Although confidence is high that it will mainly be of the lighter and non-frozen variety, various chances for rain/rain showers continue as a slow-moving shortwave trough traverses the Central Plains. Again, while not in the official forecast most areas, a few weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. High temps currently aimed around 50 degrees most areas. - WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (mostly dry): Although rain showers could return for Thursday night (mainly per ECWMF), the majority of these 48 hours have trended drier with no mentionable precip chances, as we reside "in between" systems. High temps have trended up several degrees...now mainly mid 50s-low 60s Wed...and upper 60s-low 70s Thursday. - FRIDAY-SATURDAY (rain chances, but high uncertainty): Mostly copying/pasting what was already touched on above... Primarily longer-term models (ECMWF/GFS) show widely varying solutions, mainly due to big timing/placement differences in our next larger-scale upper trough (thus why PoPs are currently at no higher than 50% during this time). Taking the latest deterministic runs "literally" (obviously FAR too soon to do this...but just to illustrate the big uncertainty: The latest ECMWF suggests a legitimate thunderstorm/convective risk for Friday (possibly even severe!) and is dry Saturday...while the latest GFS is dry Friday but conversely offers rain showers for Saturday. Obviously a LOT to sort out here, and it's far too soon to "buy into" any one scenario. Temperature-wise, also somewhat low-confidence, but for now we are calling for highs mainly mid 50s-low 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR to IFR conditions possible during TAF period. Some hi-res guidance continues to show a low potential for a brief window of MVFR-IFR ceilings 11-17z, but model spread is too great to include a prevailing/tempo group. SCT-BKN ceilings will steadily lower throughout the morning hours, with BKN ceilings below 10,000ft by the late morning hours. Ceilings remain fairly steady during the daytime (BKN060-BKN100), but quickly fall to MVFR around/after sunset. Ceilings will continue to lower during the evening hours, reaching low MVFR-IFR by the end of the TAF period, lowest at KGRI. There is a low (20%) chance for very light snow to impact KGRI/KEAR during the early afternoon hours (18-21z), but the best chances look to remain southeast of the terminals. Easterly winds of 8-10kts are expected overnight, shifting to the southeast Sunday afternoon and becoming light after sunset. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Davis