117 FXUS64 KFWD 280529 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1129 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist along the Red River this weekend. - Widespread rain and storm chances return Wednesday through Friday next week. Beneficial rain and some severe storms will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Through This Weekend) Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Another warm day is unfolding across the region today, with clear skies, light winds, and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon. Light southerly winds will return this afternoon and evening, allowing moisture to gradually creep back into the region tonight. A weak shortwave could squeeze out a few showers along the Red River late tonight into early Saturday morning. However, the sub-cloud layer will remain quite dry, allowing most of this activity to evaporate prior to reaching the ground. Despite this, have opted to introduce 10% PoPs to portions of North Texas in the off chance any of this precipitation is able to reach the ground. A couple of warm and breezy afternoons are on tap both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 80s and southerly winds around 10-20 mph and gusts between 20-30 mph. A few areas in the Big Country will have a 50-60% chance of surpassing the 90 degree mark Saturday afternoon. The breezy winds will allow better moisture return to occur on Saturday which will set the stage heading into Saturday night as a weak shortwave and surface cold front approach from the north. The front will likely stall just to our north, serving as a focus for a few showers or storms. We'll maintain some low rain and storm chances near the Red River Saturday night into Sunday morning in the event any of this activity skirts along our northern zones. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected for most of the region over the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 Additional low chances for showers and storms will exist near the aforementioned front along the Red River Sunday night as the front begins to be pulled northward by another system moving into the Four Corners Region. However, most of this activity will once again remain to our north. Rain-free weather will then prevail for the rest of Monday and most of Tuesday, with above normal temperatures continuing across the region. A more active weather pattern is expected to take shape heading into the mid-week time period as the Four Corners system ejects into the Plains, sending a cold front towards the region late Tuesday or perhaps into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms (potentially widespread) are expected to accompany the front, beginning as early as Tuesday evening, continuing into Tuesday night and Wednesday. This activity may be accompanied by a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, but there will be several variables at play that make the threat rather uncertain at this time. While ensemble members and deterministic guidance are in good agreement regarding the presence of instability and sufficient deep-layer shear, it's unclear whether these variables will align with each other in both time and space as well as with the forcing for ascent associated with the cold front. Therefore, it's still a bit early to determine if and where there will be a threat for severe storms, and we'll have to wait until guidance comes into better agreement on the timing of all of these variables at play. Otherwise, another system will likely ride the heels of the mid- week system, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Expect our active pattern to continue, potentially with additional chances for strong to severe storms. Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026 A mid level cloud deck is developing across the region tonight and some hi-resolution model guidance continues to initiate isolated elevated showers through the night. At this time, will leave VCSH out of the TAFs, as the potential for showers appears pretty low looking at the deep dry layer on regional soundings from last night. However, will make quick amendments if needed with the timing potential from 08-11Z. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR cigs near the Texas Coast this morning will move north, but should not reach KACT, and VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF locations through this valid TAF period. However, low cigs are expected Sunday morning, just beyond this TAF period. Breezy south winds will occur from late morning through the afternoon hours. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 58 84 60 / 0 10 10 10 Waco 84 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 84 52 79 56 / 0 10 10 10 Denton 80 52 83 55 / 0 10 10 20 McKinney 80 54 81 57 / 0 10 10 20 Dallas 82 58 84 60 / 0 10 10 10 Terrell 82 54 83 57 / 0 10 10 10 Corsicana 83 56 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 83 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 82 53 87 56 / 0 10 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...JLDunn