655 FXUS63 KFSD 310834 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 234 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of drizzle/freezing drizzle and flurries could develop through this afternoon mainly across southwestern, MN. Any resulting accumulations would be light. - Seasonably cool temperatures will persist for the rest of the week with minimal precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal heading into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 TODAY & TONIGHT: Another seasonable day ahead! Taking a look across the area, low stratus continues to sit over the area this morning keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Given the elevated westerly surface winds, not expecting much of decrease from here heading into daybreak. From here, increasing low-level saturation and lift ahead of a cold front could lead to intermittent pockets of drizzle/freezing drizzle and flurries developing by mid to late morning mainly across southwestern MN. Any resulting accumulations are expected to be light. However, between the falling precipitation and refreeze on the roadways, there could be some scattered slick spots and temporary reductions to visibility so make sure to drive to the conditions! Otherwise, should see most of this activity progress out of the area by late afternoon. Temperature wise, the combination of westerly surface winds and some weak warm air advection (WAA) will help temperatures increase into the upper 20s to low 40s by late morning which will likely be our highs for the day. Nonetheless, temperatures will quickly fall following the passage of the cold front eventually bottoming out in single digits to upper teens by tonight. THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Looking into the latter parts of the week, building ridging over the western CONUS will keeps us in northwesterly flow through at least Saturday. Colder air will continue to filter into the region over the next few days as a series of arctic surface highs slide down from Canada. This will result in temperatures mainly in the 20s to 30s on Thursday and Friday. However, should see a slight boost in temperatures by Saturday as WAA returns ahead of another mid-level wave. It worth mentioning that some mid-range deterministic guidance is starting to show a couple hundredths (<0.05") of QPF mainly across southwestern MN. While its still too early tell if this will result in any measurable accumulations, this would be a period to watch for some additional flurries. SUNDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, previously mentioned ridging will gradually slide into the plains by Sunday flatting our flow aloft. An series of shortwaves will then progress through the Northern Plains over the next several days. However, most of the better precipitation chances will develop north of us or we'll simply lack the necessary moisture for anything to develop. Either way, precipitation chances will be kept to a minimum through the midweek. Temperatures-wise, we'll take on a warming trend given the pushes of WAA leading to highs mainly in the 30s to 40s through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 MVFR and patchy IFR stratus continues to move south across the area tonight. Guidance continues to vary in timing and duration of any fluctuations to VFR conditions through the period, so generally leaned more pessimistic. IFR stratus generally should remain across southwestern MN. Flurries and possibly some drizzle/freezing drizzle, continues overnight across southwestern MN and adjacent areas of northwestern IA. Additional precip is possible through the morning hours in this area as well. Little to no accumulation expected. Overall, winds remain relatively light through the period. Gusts to 20 knots expected Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Direction will vary through the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...SG