701 FXUS63 KFSD 301743 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1143 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional chances (20%-30%) for light snow will be possible by Wednesday morning mainly across southwestern MN. - Near to above normal temperatures will persist for the rest of the week with minimal precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 TODAY & TONIGHT: A milder day ahead! Taking a look across the area, we're starting to see stratus and altostratus develop ahead of our next wave this morning with pockets of flurries to light snow. As we head towards daybreak, most short-range guidance continues to have this developing activity progress southeastwards through central and southern MN with the mid-level wave. While the better forcing and moisture will be to north and northeast of us, areas of isentropic lift associated with the wave could lead to very light accumulations developing across most areas along and north of the I-90 with the potential for slightly higher accumulations in southwestern MN. While most guidance keeps accumulations under a 0.10" of an inch, some higher end guidance does show pockets of up to 0.20" of an inch so decided to make a mention of it. From here, a tightening SPG will lead to breezy west-northwest winds with gusts between 20-30 mph possible through this evening. The combination of increasing mid- level warm air advection (WAA) along with the westerly component of the winds will lead to above normal temperatures with highs mainly in the mid 30s to low 40s. Lastly, we'll see a slight increase in overnight temperatures tonight with lows only decreasing to the upper teens to mid 20s. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Looking into the midweek onwards, a similar pattern into Wednesday will bring another quick wave across central and southern MN. While guidance continues to trend the accumulations further to the north and northeast, can't completely rule out our northeastern-most zones (specifically Lincoln, Lyon, & Cottonwood Co.) seeing additional light snow accumulations. As with previous events, these light accumulations will likely cause periodic reductions to visibility mainly during the morning commute so make sure to drive to the conditions! Otherwise, as a cold front swings through; the main focus will likely shift to the influx of colder air filtering in behind it. Current NBM guidance has temperatures taking on a cooling trend through Friday with highs mainly in the 20s to 30s for most areas with the potential for low 40s along the Missouri River Valley. Can't rule out some colder wind chills into New Years Day. However, values will be closer to the single digits on either side of zero rather than the negative teens like yesterday. Otherwise, ridging will continue to build over Rockies heading into the weekend. SATURDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, upper-level ridging will progress through the area on Saturday resetting our pattern to more quasi-zonal flow. After that, an active pattern aloft will continue as a series of waves progresses through the area with very minimal chances precipitation. Nonetheless, the good new is the constant pushes of WAA will keep us on the warmer side of our seasonal temperatures with highs mainly in the 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 A few gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be possible throughout the period. Otherwise some MVFR ceilings, possibly IFR in MN, will move south into the area this afternoon and continue periodically into Wednesday. Some patchy light snow will be possible in mainly southwest MN on Wednesday morning as well. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...08