493 FXUS63 KFSD 300914 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 314 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of flurries to light snow will progress through the area this morning. While mostly light accumulations are expected, up to 0.10" of an inch or two will be possible across portions of southwestern MN. - Additional chances (20%-30%) for light snow will be possible by Wednesday morning mainly across southwestern MN. - Near to above normal temperatures will persist for the rest of the week with minimal precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 TODAY & TONIGHT: A milder day ahead! Taking a look across the area, we're starting to see stratus and altostratus develop ahead of our next wave this morning with pockets of flurries to light snow. As we head towards daybreak, most short-range guidance continues to have this developing activity progress southeastwards through central and southern MN with the mid-level wave. While the better forcing and moisture will be to north and northeast of us, areas of isentropic lift associated with the wave could lead to very light accumulations developing across most areas along and north of the I-90 with the potential for slightly higher accumulations in southwestern MN. While most guidance keeps accumulations under a 0.10" of an inch, some higher end guidance does show pockets of up to 0.20" of an inch so decided to make a mention of it. From here, a tightening SPG will lead to breezy west-northwest winds with gusts between 20-30 mph possible through this evening. The combination of increasing mid- level warm air advection (WAA) along with the westerly component of the winds will lead to above normal temperatures with highs mainly in the mid 30s to low 40s. Lastly, we'll see a slight increase in overnight temperatures tonight with lows only decreasing to the upper teens to mid 20s. WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Looking into the midweek onwards, a similar pattern into Wednesday will bring another quick wave across central and southern MN. While guidance continues to trend the accumulations further to the north and northeast, can't completely rule out our northeastern-most zones (specifically Lincoln, Lyon, & Cottonwood Co.) seeing additional light snow accumulations. Nonetheless, with a cold front passing through; the main story will likely be the influx of colder air that will come behind it. Current NBM guidance has temperatures taking on a cooling trend with through Friday with highs mainly in the 20s to 30s for most areas with the potential for low 40s along the Missouri River Valley. Can't rule out some colder wind chills into New Years Day. However, values will be closer to the single digits on either side of zero instead of negative teens like yesterday. Otherwise, ridging will continue to build over Rockies heading into the weekend. SATURDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, upper-level ridging will progress through the area on Saturday resetting our pattern to quasi-zonal flow. After that, an active pattern aloft will continue as a series of waves progresses through the area with very minimal chances precipitation. Nonetheless, the good new is the constant pushes of WAA will keep us on the warmer side of seasonal temperature-wise with highs mainly in the 30s to low 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period, with lower VFR stratus working its way in toward the end of the period. Could see some MVFR stratus across southwestern MN Tuesday evening, which may expand southwest after the period ends. Winds remain light and variable into Tuesday morning. Marginal LLWS is expected across the area Tuesday morning with the northwesterly LLJ around 35 knots. Conditions are marginal with speed shear, but directionally exceed 30 degrees as surface winds are slower to shift northwesterly and strengthen late in the morning. Afternoon wind gusts around 20 knots may lead to some patchy blowing or drifting snow. Significant or widespread impacts not anticipated. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05