311 

FXUS65 KFGZ 290835

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

135 AM MST Mon Jun 29 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Near critical to critical fire weather conditions

forecast to continue through the week, as dry and breezy

conditions persist. Afternoon temperatures will also slowly 

increase through the week, but remain mostly below normal for this

time of year.



&&



.DISCUSSION...A large area of low pressure remains over the

Pacific Northwest, allowing breezy southwest winds and dry

conditions to persist across much of Arizona. Although the

strongest winds are behind us, afternoon winds are forecast to be

10-20 mph with gusts near 25-35 mph for the next couple of days.

Between the breezy conditions and widespread minimum RH values 

between 5-15%, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for this 

afternoon/evening for portions of east-central Arizona. Similar 

conditions are expected on Tuesday, so a Fire Weather Watch is in 

place for the same locations. Pressure gradients looks to slightly

loosen up Wednesday onward, after the passage of a secondary low 

pressure system. This will likely keep winds just under Red Flag 

Warning criteria, but breezy southwest conditions and widespread 

single digit RH values will leave our CWA in near critical fire 

weather conditions. 



Outside of the winds and relative humidities, daytime highs will

slowly increase throughout the period, although remaining below

normal for this time of year for much of the work-week. 



The broad trough pattern looks to break up over the weekend as

high pressure gradually gains traction across the Southwest. A

very weak moisture push looks to occur from this synoptic pattern

change, but our confidence is low on any chances for precipitation

over the weekend and into next week. 



&&



.AVIATION...Monday 29/06Z through Tuesday 30/06Z...Mainly VFR 

conditions, except for smoke plumes due to wildfires. Localized 

MVFR/IFR conditions possible in these plumes, including terminals 

KFLG and possibly KSEZ/KGCN. Sfc winds SW5-15G20kts overnight. Sfc 

winds increase late Monday morning, becoming SW10-20g25-35kts by 

Monday afternoon, Higher speeds over eastern AZ. Sfc winds then 

becoming light again AFT 03Z Tuesday.



OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/06Z through Thursday 02/06Z...Mainly VFR 

conditions. Smoke plumes due to wildfires may produce localized 

MVFR/IFR conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW10-20g25-30kts with 

generally light winds overnight.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry and breezy conditions 

forecast to continue through much of the week. A Red Flag Warning 

will go into effect at 10 AM MST today for portions of east central 

Arizona, and a Fire Weather Watch is valid for the same area on 

Tuesday. Expect minimum RH values generally between 5-15%, and 

afternoon winds out of the southwest at 10-20 mph. Gusts between 25-

35 mph possible.



Wednesday through Friday...Dry and breezy conditions will persist, 

keeping much of northern/central Arizona in near-critical fire 

weather conditions. Look for daily southwest winds 10-20 mph, 

gusting near 25 mph. Single digits minimum RH values forecast each 

afternoon.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM 

MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.



Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening 

for AZZ112>114-116-117-140.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Konieczny

AVIATION...Peterson

FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff