232 

FXUS65 KFGZ 282257

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

357 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry weather continues for the remainder 

of this weekend. Next week will feature somewhat cooler temperatures 

and increased southwest winds, but leaning toward remaining dry 

through much of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...From this afternoon and through the weekend, an 

amplified ridge remains over the southwestern United States and very 

warm temperatures will continue. A few daily records remain possible 

through Sunday.



By next week, the upper level pattern becomes unstable as the Hudson 

Bay Low opens up and flow through central Canada becomes much more 

progressive. At the very least, this will bring a windier and cooler 

pattern to our area, but moisture is lacking.



The s/wv moving to our north Monday may very well bring some Wind 

Advisory gusts to much of the region. A brief recovery in hghts 

Tuesday and Wednesday will bring some warming and less wind.



As the week goes by, successive lows tracking through the Great 

Basin may break down the pattern enough to produce some rain or snow 

late in the period, but confidence remains low.



&&



.AVIATION...Sunday 01/00Z through Monday 02/00Z...VFR conditions

expected. Winds will gradually decrease over the next couple of

hours, becoming light and variable by 03Z. Areas along the

Mogollon Rim could see slightly elevated SW winds overnight, but

remaining under 10 kts. After 18Z, look for W-SW winds 10-20 kts

gusting near 25 kts. 



OUTLOOK...Monday 02/00Z through Wednesday 04/00Z...VFR conditions

expected. Look for gusty SW winds Monday afternoon, where gusts

could reach 30-40 kts along and north of the Mogollon Rim.

Lighter, west through north winds expected on Tuesday. Winds

generally light and variable overnight, but a few localized areas

could still see winds 10-15 kts. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Continued dry and very warm 

with temperatures 15-25 degrees above average. Winds SW 10-20 mph 

gusting to 25-30 mph on Sunday, increasing to 15-30 mph, gusting 

35-40 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-25% both days. 



Tuesday through Thursday..Mainly dry conditions with a cooling 

trend. Temperatures remain 10-15 degrees above average Tuesday and 

Wednesday, cooling to 5-10 degrees above average by Thursday. Winds 

NW-N 5-15 mph on Tuesday, turning SW 5-15 mph on Wednesday, SW 10-20 

mph Thursday. Minimum RH values 10-25% each day.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Peterson

AVIATION...Konieczny

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff